NEWS RELEASE SEPTEMBER 2015
Liquid Filtration Market Will Be Slowed By Sinking Chinese Economy, Drop in Oil Prices and New Technology
The liquid filtration and elements market will grow by 15 percent through 2019 predicts the McIlvaine Company in N006 Liquid Filtration and Media World Markets. This forecast is predicated on oil prices of $80/barrel, a Chinese economic growth of 7 percent and modest penetration of the market from competing technologies. At $40/barrel oil, 2 percent economic growth in China and greater penetration of competing technologies, the growth over the next four years could be as low as 8 percent.
Oil prices, the Chinese economy and technology competition are three of the biggest variables in the future forecasts. In order to understand the impact on the total market one has to analyze each product type included in the report.
|
Subject |
Market % |
%consumables |
Oil impact |
China impact |
Technology |
| ABW Filter | 12 | 10 | m | m | + |
| Bag Filter | 14 | 90 | l | m | - |
| Belt Filter Press | 10 | 40 | l | l | - |
| Drum & Disk | 10 | 40 | l | m | - |
| Filter Press | 15 | 60 | l | m | - |
| Granular Media Filter | 25 | 10 | l | m | - |
| Leaf, Tubular & Belt | 14 | 30 | m | m | - |
Automatic backwash filters (ABW) represent 12 percent of the market. They are used in oil and gas production. China is a significant purchaser. This technology is gaining market share over cartridges (covered in a separate McIlvaine report). This increased penetration is included in the present forecast as indicated by the + in the table. Only 10 percent of the market is consumables, so ABW filters are more vulnerable to economic swings than are bag filters where 90 percent of the market is consumables.
The forecast already takes into account the lower market share for the other technologies. McIlvaine anticipates that membranes will continue to carve out a bigger share of the food market at the expense of leaf and disk filters. Under a tough competition scenario, the market would be reduced even further.
Oil prices impact those product segments where the oil and gas industry is a major purchaser. Some products e.g. belt filter presses, are sold primarily to sewage treatment plants and are not going to be impacted by changing oil prices.
There are many variables affecting the market. The Fukushima disaster alone accounted for a 1 percent increase in the market for a period of two years. The variables need to be continually evaluated. As a result, McIlvaine is updating its forecasts on a quarterly basis.
For more information onN006 Liquid Filtration and Media World Markets, click on:http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/118-n006