NEWS RELEASE                                   AUGUST 2010

$3.3 Trillion 5 Year Capital Investment in Dynamic Segments of Energy and Environment

In the next five years over $3.3 trillion will be invested in dynamic segments of the power, energy and water industries.  The largest application will be for coal-fired boilers followed by municipal wastewater plant construction.  The largest purchasing region will be BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and China) with twice the investment as the Americas.

Capital Investment 2011 through 2015 ($ billions)

 

Industry Segment

$ billions

1

 New Coal-fired Power Plants

915

2

 Municipal Wastewater New and Upgrades

410

3

 New Nuclear Plants

360

4

 Wind Power Generation

287

5

 Municipal Drinking Water New and Upgrades

208

6

 Gas Turbines

207

7

 Ethylene Manufacturing

160

8

 Solar Power

134

9

 Refineries

117

10

 LNG Liquefaction

115

11

 Nuclear Upgrades

110

12

 Biomass Power Generation

57

 

 Subtotal

3080


The other eleven industries in the rankings are all under $50 billion:
 

13

 Desalination

14

 DeNOx Retrofits in Coal Generators

15

 FGD Retrofits at Coal Generators

16

 Geothermal Power Plants

17

 Cement Air Pollution Control

18

 Coal-fired (other air)

19

 Gas To Liquids

20

 Shale Gas Extraction

21

 Refinery Upgrades

22

 LNG Regasification

23

 Coal To Gas and Liquids

These additional industry segments will require $281 billion investment in the next five years.

Geographical groupings have been selected based on the McIlvaine “Decisive Classification” principles.  As noted above, BRIC includes Brazil, Russia, India, and China.  This grouping has become increasingly popular due to projections that these four countries could have a combined GDP of $128 trillion by 2050 compared to the U.S. present GDP of $14 trillion.  The Americas excludes Brazil.  Other Asia excludes China and India but includes Australia.  MENA includes the Middle East and those North African nations with similar cultural identity.  ROW is primarily other countries in Africa.

The unique perspective of this grouping is that the Americas share its #2 position in the opportunity rankings with Europe and Other Asia. 

 2011-2015 Aggregate Capital Expenditures

BRIC will require an investment of $1.3 trillion or 38 percent of the total.  MENA is one third of the Americas potential.

There are substantial shifts in the markets from a regional perspective.  The biggest shift from region to region is in ethylene manufacturing where all new construction is in MENA and BRIC.  From a growth perspective, shale gas extraction in the Americas will grow from an insignificant base to over $15 billion in the five year period.  The biggest single regional market is coal-fired power in BRIC.

#

Industry Segment

Region

$ Billion

1

 New Coal-fired Power Plants

BRIC

620

2

 New Coal-fired Power Plants

Other Asia

150

3

 Municipal Wastewater New and Upgrades

BRIC

140

4

 New Nuclear Plants

Other Asia

130

5

 Municipal Wastewater New and Upgrades

Americas

120

6

 Wind Power Generation

Europe

110

7

 New Nuclear Plants

BRIC

110

8

 Municipal Wastewater  New and Upgrades

Europe

110

9

 Municipal Wastewater New and Upgrades

Other Asia

110

10

 New Coal-fired Power Plants

Europe

100

Europe appears twice on the top ten list.  It has a huge offshore wind development program.  It also appears at #10 under new coal-fired boilers.  But unlike BRIC, these plants are primarily replacements of existing plants with more efficient ones for the purpose of reducing greenhouse gases.

These investment forecasts are based on megawatt, tons per day and million gallons/day forecasts by country appearing in the following McIlvaine reports:  Renewable Energy, Fossil and Nuclear, Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining, Water and Wastewater Treatment Chemicals, FGD, NOX Control, Fabric Filter, and Electrostatic Precipitator.  More information on these reports is available at: www.mcilvainecompany.com.

More details of this analysis by industry and region and a relevant blog are available on the McIlvaine free site.  We encourage questions and discussions.  To register click here: http://www.mcilvainecompany.com/UPIS_Registration_Form.htm