NEWS RELEASE                                                                                         May 2018

$20 billion Market for Cartridges by 2024

The market for cartridges to purify liquids will continue to grow faster than GDP and will reach $20 billion worldwide by 2024. This is the latest prediction of the McIlvaine Company in N024 Cartridge Filters: World Market.

Commercial and residential purchasers will account for half the total market which includes membrane, non-woven, string wound and metal cartridges. However in the membrane segment the pharmaceutical industry will be the largest purchaser followed by health care and then the chemical industry.

Membrane cartridge sales will increase faster than total cartridge sales due to the higher efficiency and improvements in membrane technology. The industry consolidation is expected to continue and to accelerate due to the utilization of remote monitoring technology to continually assess cartridge filter health and performance. The large filter companies such as Mann + Hummel, Parker Hannifin and Donaldson are investing heavily in remote monitoring systems. This will allow them to provide comprehensive service and replacement programs.

One division of Parker already supplies replacements for all the filters in a plant including those supplied by competitors. Many plants have thousands of cartridges. So the supply of replacements carries with it a high administrative cost relative to filter price. Blue tooth technology can be imbedded in pressure sensors attached to each filter at nominal cost. When pressure levels reach a pre-determined point the replacement filters can be automatically ordered.

For more information on this forecast click on N024 Cartridge Filters: World Market.

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                         May 2018

Power Industry will Spend over $1.5 billion for Gas Measurement in 2022

There will be substantial increases in purchase of gas measurement devices in the power industry over the next five years. The purchase of instrumentation will expand faster than the construction of new power plants due to the following factors.

  • Increasing measurement and control at existing plants
  • Expansion of coal fired capacity in Asia
  • Expansion of gas turbine combined cycle plant capacity worldwide
  • Development of better instruments which justify replacing existing instruments or use where instruments were not previously used
  • Expansion of the regulatory requirements to measure stack emissions continuously
  • Expansion in the number of pollutants to be measured
  • Expansion of rules to measure fence line and other ambient pollutants
  • Improvements of combustion efficiency with better in furnace gas measurements

The top 15 power companies will spend more than $750 million for gas measurement devices in 2022.  This includes analyzers to measure CO, CO2, O2, NOx, NH3, SO2, SO3, mercury and dust. The requirements for mass measurement of dust are boosting the market because their cost is considerably greater than the previously required opacity monitors.

For forecasts of gas measurement by industry and country click on N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M.

Each coal fired power plant project is tracked at 42EI Utility Tracking System.

Each gas turbine plant project is tracked at 59EI Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine Supplier Program.

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                         May 2018

Power Plant Cross Flow Membrane Revenue Opportunity to Exceed $1.2 billion by 2025

Power plants around the world are increasingly turning to contaminated water and seawater as a water source. They are also widely adopting zero liquid discharge designs to recirculate rather than discharge wastewater. Cross flow membranes are used extensively for both water and wastewater treatment in power plants. By 2025 this opportunity will exceed $1 billion segmented as follows.

Power Plant Cross Flow Membrane Revenues $ 2025
Product $ millions
Cross Flow Equipment 400
Cross Flow Balance of System 300
Replacement Membranes 200
Remote O&M and Service 300
Total 1200

The following factors will shape the market

  • Many of the new power plants will be in Asian countries without large fresh water resources.
  • Desalination for drinking water is being combined with water for power plants.
  • Zero liquid discharge retrofits are being implemented in China, the U.S. and other countries where water discharge emission limits have become more stringent.
  • Most power plants are within 100 miles of a major municipal wastewater plant.
  • Treated municipal wastewater use in power plants is frequently the lowest cost option.
  • Large power plants in the Middle East are being built with reverse osmosis seawater desalination for both power and drinking purposes.
  • The cost of cross flow membrane technology is shrinking.
  • All power plants use a combination of RO, UF, and MF to treat boiler feedwater.
  • The power generated from coal, natural gas and nuclear will continue to increase.
  • The opportunity for remote monitoring and advisory services will be substantial.
  • There will be a $300 million market for balance of system components such as pumps, energy recovery, valves, piping and engineering.
  • 15 major power plant operators will purchase 55% of all the cross-flow membrane products.

Details on the world markets for cross-flow equipment and consumables are found at N020 RO, UF, MF World Market

Details on existing and proposed coal fired plants and nuclear plants are included in 42EI Utility Tracking System

Details on gas turbines and combined cycle plants are found at 59EI Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine Supplier Program

A decision program for feedwater and wastewater treatment for coal fired plants is included in 44I Coal Fired Power Plant Decisions

The opportunity for remote O&M and advisory services for membrane systems is analyzed in N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M

For information on custom reports contact Bob McIlvaine at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 847 784 0012 ext. 112

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                         May 2018

$180 billion Market for Combust, Flow and Treat for Gas Turbines

Operators of simple cycle and combined cycle gas turbine plants will spend $180 billion per year for hardware, consumables, instrumentation and services on an annual basis over the next 10 years.

The industry capacity worldwide will only be growing at 3 percent per year. However, there will be upgrades to improve efficiency and meet environmental regulations plus replacement of valves, pumps and other hardware which bring yearly expenditures for outside services and hardware to $180 billion /yr.

Some of the key findings in the McIlvaine research for several services is

  • Gas turbine capacity will grow faster than coal capacity but installed coal capacity will continue to exceed that of gas.
  • Solar and wind capacity will grow at a faster rate than gas but will still account for a minority share of world generation capacity.
  • New materials and components can be acquired to improve plant efficiency and reduce costs even in a frequent cycling environment where flow accelerated corrosion and other challenges are encountered.
  • A number of simple cycle plants will be upgraded with a steam cycle.
  • Zero liquid discharge wastewater systems are being employed where water is scarce and or discharge emission limits are stringent.
  • Municipal wastewater will be increasingly used as a water source.
  • The valve and pump opportunity at existing plants when including both replacements and repairs will be six times greater than the new plant opportunity.
  • Problems such as encountered with desuperheaters will require substantial investment.
  • Costs of new SCR and replacement catalyst will be significant.
  • Third party O&M of gas turbine power plants will accelerate based on low cost of sensors, wireless transmitters and improving value of data analytics.
  • The largest power plant owners and third-party operators will account for most of the purchases.

Details on the future markets and identification of existing plants and tracking of new projects is included[RM1] in 59EI Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine Supplier Program

A decision program for feedwater and wastewater treatment for gas turbine plants is included in 59D Gas Turbine and Reciprocating Engine Decisions

The opportunity for remote O&M and advisory services is analyzed in N031 Industrial IOT and Remote O&M

For information on custom reports contact Bob Mcilvaine at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 847 784 0012 ext 112

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                         May 2018

Accurate Forecasting of the Combust, Flow and Treat Markets Would Cost $2 billion

Detailed and accurate forecasting of the Combust flow and Treat (CFT) market is very expensive.  A big investment cannot be justified just to ascertain whether a market could be promising. The casual inquirer can benefit from relatively inexpensive reports to indicate whether detailed study is desirable.  However, a supplier who should be basing his business plan around accurate forecasting can afford and should invest in the appropriate research.

A company with a superior dissolved oxygen monitor paid McIlvaine Company $100,000 just for a study relating to that device.  For just $4500 they could have purchased the McIlvaine IIoT and Remote O&M report with forecasts for control, guide and measure including a segment on liquid measure with 10,000 forecasts.  Rather than use the report to guesstimate the DO opportunity the company realized the value in the greatly improved accuracy of a focused report.  When you consider that this is just one of 20,000 or more niches in the CFT industry the cost for accurate forecasting of all segments would be more than $2 billion.

The McIlvaine Company has many published market reports on various aspects of the market for CFT hardware, consumables, and instrumentation.  These standard reports range from $3000 to $5000/yr and are continually updated. Some have been continually updated and revised for 40 years.  How accurate are they compared to alternatives?  The best evaluation tool is to chart the inaccuracy level   Actual/ estimate for both the total forecast and for a 1% segment for the various alternatives.

Over the last few years there has been a large increase in the number of reports available on CFT subjects.  Some are just extractions of investor presentations by CFT companies and they mix apples and oranges by combining forecasts for products which would seem to be part of one market (home furnace electrostatic precipitators vs industrial) but when lumped together are not valuable to purchasers.  These reports are therefore subject to a 400 percent inaccuracy level for the total numbers and infinitely large inaccuracies for a 1% segment.

Another category would be highly respected reports published every year or two and widely quoted by CFT companies in their investor presentations.  These reports are top down analyses with reliance on industry and government statistics plus interviews which give a consensus perspective.  One of the problems with consensus is that it can be wrong or inapplicable.   History books report that 20 million Chinese were killed by the Japanese in the early occupation years.  The truth is that this number was just fabricated as part of a publicity release to gain sympathy for the Chinese resistance.

One highly respected publisher of a CFT report was acquired by another.  The first revised report by the new company showed a Chinese market much higher than the previous report.  This is one of the risks of top down forecasting.  There may have been only a 20 percent difference in the world numbers but a 100% difference in the Chinese numbers. Nevertheless, these reports have an accuracy level high enough to make them valuable for the casual inquirer or for the advocate who is looking for a source to confirm the attractiveness of his plan.

Many firms commission management consultants to provide very detailed analyses of CFT subjects. These consultants can charge hundreds of thousands of dollars for one report.  The problem is that the most capable general consultants do not have the knowledge to execute bottoms up analyses.  No matter how many interviews are conducted the results are not going to be as reliable as can be accomplished with bottoms up forecasting.

The McIlvaine reports benefit from liberal inclusion of bottoms up forecasting but still include substantial top down forecasting to maintain a competitive price.  The question the would-be purchaser should ask is whether a 10 percent inaccuracy in the total numbers and a 100 percent or higher inaccuracy on a 1 percent segment is the right balance between cost and value.

Most suppliers have a Serviceable Obtainable Market (SOM) which is only a portion of the Serviceable Available Market (SAM).  Furthermore, many of their investment and management decisions will be built on their understanding of some of the 1 percent segments and not just the whole. These are the typical McIlvaine clients for custom research.  Projects are often based on a McIlvaine multi-client report as a foundation and then detailed investigation of selected narrow market segments to provide the actionable information needed.

The McIlvaine goal is to bring down the cost of bottoms up forecasting.  The Advanced Forecasting initiative is to determine all the bottom level intelligence in a manner which can be used for all detailed forecasting.  This means evaluating each process in each industry and determining the present and future use of each combust, flow and treat product. This has been accomplished for all CFT products in coal fired boiler markets based on determining the capacity in megawatts (MW) of each plant around the world. Then factors relating to the market per MW are created for new, replace and repair sub segments.   A similar effort has been made for gas turbines.

Mcilvaine has made great progress in other industries where the variation from plant to plant is minor. This includes semiconductors, pulp and paper, steel making and refining.  It is a greater challenge in mining, but it can be done by just segmenting by ore type.  The food and pharmaceutical industries are more challenging.

The bottom up understanding is most difficult to obtain in the chemical industry where there are large numbers of processes to crease a wide variety of end products. McIlvaine is approaching this segment by segment and has recently analyzed the processes and operators in chlorine, isocyanates, urea, nitric acid and fertilizers. The bottom level output is the projected capital and installed investment in each major plant in each industry segment. So, a company such as BASF has to be dissected based on its production of TDI as well as other major chemical products.

For more information on the multi-client market reports click on http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets

For more information on Advanced Forecasting and a 5-step business program click on www.mcilvainecompany.com

For questions about custom consulting contact Bob McIlvaine at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 847 784 0012 ext. 112

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