NEWS RELEASE                                                                                                    OCTOBER 2014

Why More Coal Is Going To Increase the Gas Turbine Market

Europe and the U.S. have been reducing coal burning power capacity and as a result need to increase gas turbine capacity.  But there is one area of the world where increased use of coal rather than decreased use of coal will result in increased gas turbine capacity and increased use of gas for home heating. This counter intuitive program is being tracked in a number of McIlvaine market reports and databases.

One way that increased coal use leads to more gas turbines is in integrated gasification combined cycle plants (IGCC). There is one such plant under construction in the U.S. The Kemper County plant is now projected to cost almost $5.6 billion. Initially the project was estimated to cost $2.4 billion. Start up is now slated for May 2015.

The plant will capture 65 percent of CO2 and deliver 3 million tons of liquid CO2 to oil companies for use in enhanced oil recovery.

This program has been subsidized by the U.S. government. The high cost can be offset where there are enhanced oil recovery opportunities. However, there are not many generation sites which are convenient to oil and gas extraction sites where EOR would be justifiable.

The one area of the world where increased coal will lead to very large increases in gas use is China.  In northern and western China, 700 million tons of coal will be gasified. The gas will then be piped to the big cities. Six hundred thousand coal-fired industrial boilers will be replaced by new gas turbine systems as well as home and residential gas heating units.

The Chinese government has launched a fast track $260 billion program to eliminate the smog in the large cities.  The foundation of this program is clean gas for heating and power.

The magnitude of this effort is demonstrated by a comparison to the U.S. Gas turbine plants in the U.S. deliver power equivalent to coal-fired boilers consuming 400 million tons of coal per year.   The Chinese program will, therefore, generate enough gas to fuel nearly twice the entire U.S. gas turbine capacity.

This program is generating outrage among environmentalists around the world.  But the outrage is failing to have any effect.  The smog problem in the major Chinese cities is causing huge health problems now. The average Shanghai citizen is less concerned about creating a pleasant life for his grandchildren fifty years from now than he is about eliminating the asthma risk for his children this year. He is less interested in the fate of the polar bears than he is in eliminating haze so severe that the sun is not visible.

The economic argument is equally persuasive. Coal gas is estimated to cost as low as $4.50/MMBtu. Imported LNG is $15 /MMBtu.

This attitude is widely shared throughout Asia.  Australia has eliminated the carbon tax and completely reversed its position on global warming. In both Australia and Korea there is considerable movement toward converting coal to LNG.  Posco is building a coal to gas plant to replace the LNG it is now buying on the international market.  India is considering following the Chinese lead.  It has coal reserves but little gas.

More information on these initiatives can be found in:

N043 Fossil and Nuclear Power Generation: World Analysis and Forecast

59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program

N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                                    OCTOBER 2014

Granular Filter Market to Exceed $1.7 Billion Next Year

Sales of granular media filters to purify water will exceed $1.7 billion in 2015.  This is the latest forecast in Liquid Filtration and Media World Markets published by the McIlvaine Company.

Granular Filter Market ($ Millions)

World Region

2015

 Total

 1,749

 Africa

 69

 CIS

 63

 East   Asia

 724

 Eastern   Europe

 37

 Middle   East

 65

 NAFTA

 241

 South   & Central America

 117

 West   Asia

 280

 Western   Europe

 153

 

East Asia will be the largest purchaser due to the investment in drinking and wastewater facilities for the rapidly growing urban populations throughout the region. West Asia will be the second largest regional purchaser with NAFTA close behind.

Granular media filters are the first choice for drinking water plants around the world.  They are also used in wastewater plants.  They are loaded with sand to remove particulate.  They can also be loaded with activated carbon to remove contaminants which affect water taste. There is competition from membrane filtration but granular media filter suppliers have held market share despite the prediction that the more efficient membrane systems would greatly reduce the granular media filter sales.

One of the biggest growth areas is in the purification of water in the oil and gas industry. Conventional onshore oil and gas extraction requires much less filtration than unconventional onshore and offshore extraction.  One of the more challenging applications is aboard offshore oil platforms where space and low maintenance are of prime importance.

Another growing application is for tertiary filtration of wastewater being discharged from municipal treatment plants.  If this water is going to reused by power plants, filtration is required.  Large numbers of power plants are planning to use treated municipal wastewater in the future.

For more information on: Liquid Filtration and Media World Markets, click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/118-n006

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                                     OCTOBER 2014

Groundwater Remediation Market to Exceed $14 Billion Next Year

More than $14 billion will be spent in 2015 to remove metals, VOCs and other contaminants from groundwater. This is the conclusion reached in Site Remediation World Markets published by the McIlvaine Company.

VOCs are present at more than two-thirds of the Superfund, RCRA and DOD sites and at almost half of the DOE sites. VOCs (in the form of BTEX) also are the primary contaminants at underground storage tank (UST) sites. Of the twelve contaminants most frequently found at Superfund and DOD sites, more than half are metals, primarily arsenic, chromium, lead, zinc, nickel and cadmium.

The U.S. is the world leader and over the next few years will represent the largest market for groundwater remediation.

The remediation of groundwater at the Japanese Fukushima site will be ongoing and will represent 5 percent of the total groundwater remediation market.

Here are some examples of other activities around the world.

The Environmental Protection Authority (EPA) of Australia has ordered the chemical company Orica Australia Pty Ltd to clean up arsenic-contaminated groundwater at its Kooragang Island manufacturing plant near Newcastle in New South Wales (NSW).  The pollution was caused by an outdated industrial process to produce ammonia.

China recognizes the extent of its problems and is accelerating remediation efforts. Results of the 2013 water quality report issued by the Chinese Ministry of Land and Resources show a slightly downward trend compared to the previous year.  In 2012, 57.4 percent of the areas being monitored for water pollution were rated as “relatively poor” or “very poor.”  In 2013, nearly 60 percent of the areas were found to have “relatively poor” or “very poor” groundwater quality. In addition, the ministry monitored water quality at 4,778 points in 203 cities. Of those, 43.9 percent were rated “relatively poor” and 15.7 percent were rated “very poor.”

The Nova Scotia Supreme Court has ruled that IMP Group International, Inc. of Halifax, Nova Scotia is responsible for cleanup of groundwater contaminated with perchloroethylene (PCE) at its IMP Aerospace site in Halifax and twelve properties nearby. 

For more information on Site Remediation World Markets, click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/remediation

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                                     OCTOBER 2014

Huge Chinese FGD Market for New Equipment and Repairs

The Chinese will add more MW of flue gas desulfurization (FGD) between 2014 and 2020 than exist in the U.S. By 2020, China will have 50 percent of all the FGD systems in the world.  This prediction is contained in FGD Market and Strategiespublished by the McIlvaine Company.

China FGD (MW)

Classification

2014

2020

Existing   FGD

 659,971

 896,555

FGD   Retirements

 -1,000

 -1,000

New   Construction - FGD

 42,500

 25,500

Retrofits  

 13,004

 11,316

Total   New FGD

 55,504

 36,816

 

China plans to install FGD on new power plants and to retrofit older power plants presently without FGD. There are 96,000 MW of power plants targeted for the five year period.  By 2010 nearly 900,000 MW of FGD systems will be installed.

Some of this new power plant capacity is to meet the rising energy needs of the country.  Some of it will be to replace existing coal-fired boilers in residences, commercial buildings and industry.  More than 600,000 small coal-fired boilers will be retired.

Most new FGD systems will produce wallboard quality gypsum using limestone reagents. Dry scrubbing using lime is becoming more popular in the arid areas where there is a water scarcity.

McIlvaine is recommending that Chinese utilities consider two stage limestone scrubbing systems in which the first stage creates hydrochloric acid. This acid can be used to leach gallium and other rare earths from the flyash along with alumina. Since China is spending billions on technologies to leach metals from flyash, it makes sense to use this one step scrubbing and leaching process.

For more information on FGD Market and Strategies,click on: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/107-n027

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                                    OCTOBER 2014

China Globe Valve Purchases to Exceed $3.5 Billion In 2019

China will be the leading purchaser of globe valves in 2019. McIlvaine Company has ranked purchasers in Industrial Valves: World Market. China will spend $2.65 billion for globe valves used for control purposes and $883 million for on/off globe valves.

Ranking of Globe Valve Purchasers ($ Millions)

Country

Classification

2019

 China  

 Control

 2,650

 United   States

 Control

 1,718

 China  

 On/Off

 883

 India

 Control

 590

 United   States

 On/Off

 573

 Russia

 Control

 504

 Japan

 Control

 503

 Germany

 Control

 362

 Brazil

 Control

 360

 South   Korea

 Control

 272

 Saudi   Arabia

 Control

 246

 Mexico

 Control

 225

 United   Kingdom

 Control

 219

 Canada

 Control

 203

 India

 On/Off

 197

 France

 Control

 186

 Italy

 Control

 178

 Russia

 On/Off

 168

 Japan

 On/Off

 168

 Indonesia

 Control

 163

 Other   Middle East

 Control

 147

 Nigeria

 Control

 133

 Taiwan

 Control

 125

 Spain

 Control

 125

 Australia

 Control

 125

 

The U.S. will be the second largest purchaser. India, Russia and Japan round out the top five. Saudi Arabia is in the top ten due to its oil and gas activity.

The markets for control valves are growing faster than those for the on/off segment.  The trend is toward greater automation and optimization of processes. Globe control valves are important elements in adjusting the flow of fluids to coincide with process changes.

For more information on Industrial Valves: World Market, click on:http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/2-uncategorised/115-n028

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