NEWS RELEASE FEBRUARY 2016
Asia Will Be the Largest Purchaser of Gas Turbine–Combined Power Plants This Year
In 2016 more than 73,000 MW of gas turbine power generators will start operation. Forty-five percent of the total will be in Asia.
|Gas Turbine Starts (MW)|
The lower cost of natural gas is having an impact on the Asian market. LNG imports will provide the needed fuel for future growth. The U.S. market is robust due to both low gas prices and environmental deterrents to coal-fired generation.
A steady growth rate in capacity is anticipated despite competition from renewable sources such as wind and solar. The differential cost between gas turbine based electricity and that from wind and solar has widened with plunging oil and gas prices.
The forecasts through 2021 are available in two services provided by McIlvaine.
This forecast is updated quarterly and included in a very comprehensive program 59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program. Purchasers of the spreadsheetcan later deduct this price if they then purchase 59EI.
NEWS RELEASE FEBRUARY 2016
Desalination is a High Growth Market
Water in many countries is competing with oil as the most precious commodity. The ocean can supply the needs of the world through desalination. One of the limiting factors in increased desalination production has been energy costs. With more efficient desalination technology and the low price of oil the costs of desalination are now less than that of water from alternative sources. This is creating a high growth market for membrane based processes and a modest growth market for thermal processes.
China is one of a number of countries who will achieve double-digit growth in desalination capacity in the coming five years. With 20 percent of the world’s population but only 7 percent of its fresh water, China has embraced desalination. The central government’s Special Plan for Seawater Utilization calls for producing 3 million tons (807 million gallons) a day of purified seawater by 2020—roughly quadrupling the country’s current capacity. Of China’s 668 largest cities, at least 400 already suffer from water scarcity. As of 2015 China was fifth in the world in installed desalination capacity; two years earlier it ranked ninth.
|High Single-Digit Growth|
NEWS RELEASE JANUARY 2016
New Requirements to Remove Hazardous Air Pollutants Necessitate a Holistic Approach
The requirements for power, cement, waste-to-energy, incinerator and other combustion facilities to reduce hazardous air pollutants must be viewed in terms of the total impact on air, water and solid waste. Furthermore, the successes in one industry in one country need to be evaluated by other industries and other countries.
There are thousands of alternative system designs. Here are 12 of the most common or most promising:
1. Many existing combustors are just equipped with a precipitator but now face mercury, acid gas and NOx requirements.
2. The conventional approach is to add an SCR and a wet scrubber with chemical injection in the fuel and scrubber if needed. A tail end absorber will result in overall mercury reduction above 90 percent but is not yet common.
3. A number of plants are opting for the dry approach but are no longer able to sell ash and have a landfill challenge. The concern with DSI is the cost of lime but the capital cost is low and particulate removal is high. Acid gas removal can be high with a DSI-SDA combination.
4. Older plants which want to retain the precipitator but minimize capital cost can consider the low cost approach with a small scrubber using highly reactive lime preceded by ozone injection for NOx control.
5. Older plants which also need to meet a lower particulate limit can use a venturi scrubber as opposed to upgrading the precipitator with bags.
6. Older plants which have little room can replace the precipitator with a high energy venturi absorber.
7. Using a tray scrubber and wet ESP requires a higher investment but will have lower energy costs and higher PM2.5 removal.
8. Maximum efficiency with fabric filters and wet ESPs.
9. The new catalytic filter operating at 350°F or 850°F introduces another set of options.
10. The catalytic filter can be combined with a condensing heat exchanger scrubber for low emissions and heat recovery to reduce energy impact.
11. Extend the rotary heat exchanger and reduce gas temperature entering the precipitator to 200°F. The increase in efficiency rivals a wet precipitator.
12. Multiple scrubbers with hydrochloric acid and gypsum production plus heat extraction.
The most investment has been made in approach 2 but without the adsorber module. This addition can increase mercury removal to greater than 90 percent.
The adsorber module is being used at a few power plants but it is being embraced by sewage sludge incinerator operators. The location of adsorber modules above the mist eliminators in the typical sewage sludge incinerator scrubber is relatively inexpensive. The cement and power industries should take note of this early sewage sludge incinerator experience.
A number of older power plants have opted for approach 3. Perhaps approach 4 through 7 might be even more attractive for older power plants. One reason is the ability to chemically fix the calcium sulfite sludge. Before the concerns about mercury and other toxic metals the belief was that the gypsum process had the least negative impact on water and solid waste. It is now recognized that encapsulating toxic metal slurries through chemical fixation is the safest route. The loss of gypsum revenue using approach 2 is offset by savings in treating wastewater to remove the toxic metals. The solid waste from approach 3 can be mixed with lime to also provide a land fill or construction product. China is making bricks from this material.
Some new power plants with the most stringent emission requirements have opted for approach 8. One advantage is the sale of the gypsum. This approach requires a capital investment more than twice some of the other alternatives. China is presently upgrading its coal-fired power plant systems by adding wet precipitators. This is approach 8 but the initial collector is an existing precipitator.
Approach 9 has been successfully applied for incinerators, biomass combustors and glass furnaces. The first big order for a cement plant application has just been placed. The heat recovery provides the greenhouse gas reduction benefits. Particulate, NOx and acid gases are all captured in one device. Mercury needs to be captured downstream due to the high temperature at the filter.
Approach 10 substitutes a condensing scrubber for DSI. In approach 11 the precipitator efficiency is improved by lowering the entry gas temperature.
Approach 12 is the one used in a number of new waste-to-energy plants in Europe and proposed for Los Angeles. It maximizes salable byproducts and minimizes energy losses. McIlvaine has recommended a variation of this process to recover rare earths and metals in coal-fired power generation.
Much of the power plant experience has been in the U.S. while a number of the industrial installations have been in Europe. There have been some innovative approaches in China including hybrid precipitator /baghouses. It is desirable that the world experience across the industries be continually analyzed. McIlvaine is pursuing this in a series of webinars and online decision systems.
Click here for the webinar schedule and free registration:
The decision systems appear in:
NEWS RELEASE JANUARY 2016
Aquaculture is a Steady Growth Market
Fish is a major source of protein for over one billion people around the world, especially in the developing countries. In the U.S. the awareness of protein from fish consumption and other health benefits is making fish farming a profitable business.
Over 70 percent of the world’s wild fish stock has been exploited or depleted due to over fishing and, therefore, fish farming has become a necessity.
The market is concentrated in Asia with China and Indonesia accounting for 80 percent of current production.
Recirculating Aquaculture has advantages over sea pens and land pondsbecause it reuses all resources, minimizes waste of water and other resources and has least negative impact on the environment. This growing segment uses oxygen monitors, aerators and other process equipment. The recirculated water is continually purified. It is therefore an attractive market for suppliers of flow control and treatment equipment.
NEWS RELEASE JANUARY 2016
Precision Forecasting of Flow Control and Treatment Products is Now Possible
The wealth of available information and the power of the computer now make possible bottoms-up precision forecasting of product and service revenue rather than the traditional top-down approach.
Because of rapid changes in key factors such as oil prices or political crises, it is now possible to economically provide precision forecasting on a continuously updated basis.
One example is the forecasting of compressors for flue gas desulfurization (FGD) gypsum formation. Precision forecasting requires a systematic analysis through each of eight steps.
The first task is to select the product category. In this case it could be all the blowers and compressors used for this service or just one of the options. The determination of the type of blower or compressor is a task unto itself. First one needs to determine the forecast for the product category.
The drivers include expansion of coal-fired power plants, replacement of existing compressors but also modification of power plants. Many countries have required retrofitting of FGD to boilers.
China is the largest purchaser of FGD gypsum blowers and compressors. The country can be divided into nine major combinations of provinces and autonomous zones to conform to the territory likely to be covered by an individual salesman.
Increased electricity consumption and the desire for clean air are the basic drivers behind the compressor purchases. So wealth, population, wants and needs are all relevant.
Secondary drivers are critical but are the most challenging. The FGD gypsum compressor is not used in all coal-fired power plants but only those with FGD systems. The sub process is critical. The dry approach requires no compressors. The wet approach with natural oxidation does not require compressors. The incorporating product is also important. One type of scrubber (tray tower) needs larger compressors than another type of scrubber (spray tower).
Precision forecasting requires that this comprehensive approach be used first for all the relevant processes, sub processes and incorporating products. When this data has already been determined, the effort to forecast compressors is greatly reduced.
Prediction metrics are critical. Failing all else one uses value/value metrics. A new coal-fired power plant of 1000 MW costs $2 billion. The compressors cost $1 million. So the forecast for coal-fired power revenues can be multiplied by .0000005. It is much better to use MW of capacity, gallons of slurry/MW and m3 of air required to obtain the prediction metrics.
The forecasts can be supplied with both revenue and unit numbers and even average size of units. This is possible because McIlvaine tracks every new project and existing power plant around the world and can determine average project size.
The associated revenue is subject to many variables, so establishing the amount of air required and number of units should be the base forecast. In a country such as China, the cost of a compressor purchased locally vs. internationally can be different. But one cannot use general assumptions. Investigation shows that Chinese purchasers have spent more money for the more reliable and efficient international compressors.
This choice is partly driven by the higher cost of electricity in China. Efficiency vs. price is also a factor in the type of compressor or blower selected. The forecasting is improved if the electricity costs in each country/state/province are also known and utilized.
Precision forecasting can be achieved by McIlvaine because it integrates all the products and services used in the $350 billion flow control and treatment market and because it uses the eight step bottoms-up approach.
For more information click on: Detailed Forecasting of Markets, Prospects and Projects