NEWS RELEASE                                                                                     June 2020

The World is One Large Coronavirus Cleanroom Market

We live in a world where the coronavirus plays a major role now and for the foreseeable future.  What we are finding is that this virus can travel in small droplets released by the lungs or on small particles of which there is no shortage. We breath in and exhale millions of tiny particles every hour. With this new finding we need to turn to the cleanroom experts who have been focused on eliminating small particles from the air for 60 years.

These experts and the products and services they offer provide an essential resource for mitigating the virus. McIlvaine is assisting by providing the suppliers with forecasts of the market opportunities in the broader vision of the world as one big coronavirus clean room market.

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World Cleanroom Markets forecasts the revenues of rooms, components, masks and other consumables for all industries including biopharmaceuticals and hospitals. http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/other/n6f-world-cleanroom-markets

Cleanroom Technology Solutions with daily alerts and webinars analyzes the masks, filters, and various other hardware and consumables which will allow a safe return to near normal life and work.  http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/markets/air/82ai-coronavirus-market-intelligence

Coronavirus Pharmaceutical Solutions tracks the progress to develop vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics.  Bi-weekly Alerts are accompanied by detailed profiles of the developers and contract manufacturers who make mitigation possible.  June 3 Alert , Gilead Profile

All three of these services are being offered as a package and included with the World Cleanroom Markets report at no extra charge.

A supplier needs all three of these services to fully understand the opportunities and challenges created by COVID.

A cleanroom is defined in the ISO standard 14644-1 as:

“A room in which the concentration of airborne particles is controlled, and which is constructed and used in a manner to minimize the introduction, generation, and retention of particles inside the room and in which other relevant parameters, e.g. temperature, humidity, and pressure, are controlled as necessary”


6.2 million people have contracted COVID 19 in the last six months.  380,000 have died. With a problem of this magnitude caused in large part by an airborne virus we have to be thinking of the world as one big facility which needs to adopt cleanroom technology. The same strategy can be applied as would be applied to a pharmaceutical complex.

In a pharmaceutical facility there is likely to be a progression of clean spaces.

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Ambient air in a typical city contains 500,000 or less particles 0.3 microns in diameter in each cubic foot. It also contains millions of smaller particles. An individual inhales the air with the particles and then exhales the CO2 and sends the particles back into the environment. A super spreader can be generating thousands of virus aerosols per minute. Some will be in small  droplets caused by lung splashes. They may  travel hundreds of yards. Those which attach to small particles can drift over a whole region e.g. Lombardy, Italy.  There is no knowledge as to what percentage is inactivated by distance traveled and what percentage is just dormant and ready to be revived in lung moisture.

There is research which indicates that the disease can be transmitted by as few as 10 virus particles. On the other hand experts say that most is contracted through contact with large numbers of particles. As long as some of the COVID transmission is through aerosols there will be no fool proof way to prevent COVID transmission. A mitigation program has to therefore accept some risk and minimize the transmission as much as is economically possible.

This is the same strategy used in a pharmaceutical facility. Many pharmaceutical operations take place in space where the number of 0.3 micron particles is limited to 100 or less. Within that space there may be isolators where there is less than one 0.3 micron particle per cubic foot. When one leaves a less clean space and enters a cleaner area there are possibly air showers, garment changing and other procedures.

The decision on how clean to make each space is a function of risk and cost. The same principle applies to dealing with COVID. The protection effort needed on a crowded subway is much greater than a sparsely inhabited park. Suppliers have products to address varying levels of risk and reduction.

An advantage of the packaging of the three services is to determine the impact of one on the others. The massive effort to create vaccines, therapeutics, and diagnostics for COVID means that there will be reduced cleanroom revenues for cancer and other biopharmaceuticals.

For more details on this package contact Bob McIlvaine at 847 226 2391 or email him at 847 226 2391.

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                     May 2020

Mask Policy Review

Should we Rethink our Whole Mask Policy?

Should task # 1 be to protect individuals rather than keep them from being spreaders?

Mask Webinar on June 18 to Launch Debate on Protecting Wearer as Well as Those at Risk

Cambridge has an Efficient and Comfortable Mask but with Valve

Armbrust American Gearing Up to Manufacture Billions of N95 Masks per Year

Draeger has Long Term Contract to Deliver N95 Masks to HHS

CDC Approves Powered Air Purifying Respirators

IQ Mask Uses HEPA Grade Filtration Media

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Mask Policy Review

Should we Rethink our Whole Mask Policy?

Mask policy to combat COVID is based not on protecting the wearer but on protecting others from being infected by the wearer.  There is an argument to be made that the emphasis should be the other way around.  If everyone is protected then stopping the virus at its source is not so critical. It is appealing to just focus on stopping the source as you would by just turning off a garden hose.  But if the water is already part of  a rain storm, source control is too challenging. Virus in big cough droplets can be likened to the garden hose whereas virus aerosols can be likened to the rain storm.

We have mounting evidence that at least some of the COVID transmission is through small droplet aerosols or on virus attached to small particles. The argument can be made that the most important safeguard will be a highly efficient N95 or even N99 mask. Here are some examples

  • Medical personnel are exposed to thousands of times more COVID than others but they wear N95 or even more efficient masks and avoid infection
  • 60 choir members in Washington State attended a 2 hour choir practice but sanitized everything and kept 6 feet apart. 45 of them became infected. If they had worn surgical masks maybe only 25 would have become infected. If they had all worn N95 masks none of them should have become infected.
  • At a Southern China restaurant where the air conditioner spread COVID N95 masks could have prevented the spread.
  • If those passengers on the Diamond Princess isolated in their cabins and inhaling viruses through the HVAC system had instead roamed the ship in N95 masks they would have been spared.

Should task # 1 be to protect individuals rather than keep them from being spreaders?

What hospital would want to put efficient masks on COVID patients but leave medical personnel without protection?  In theory the concept works well. Just control a few patients and then not have to worry about anyone else. In practice the obvious result would be disaster as COVID leaks would soon fell the medical  workers. The takeaway is that it is very difficult to prevent COVID from entering the air.  The same could be said for the concept that wearing inefficient masks will efficiently capture any virus generated by the wearer Since these masks are rated at very low efficiency on 0.3 micron particles and since they do not fit tightly most aerosols will pass through or around the mask

There are many arguments  to be made for and against this new concept. They all depend on facts which are in dispute or not clearly understood.  McIlvaine will be conducting a webinar on  June 18 to discuss all of the following  factors.

      Virus Factors

  • The size and proliferation of aerosols
  • The percentage of virus in aerosols versus larger droplets
  • The viral load
  • Minimum infectious dose
  • Life of virus
  • Virus rejuvenation from dormancy
  • Creation of aerosols from viruses leaving surfaces

Mask Factors

  • Efficiency of various masks in removing viruses
  • Various mask media options
  • Wash ability
  • Efficiency reduction over time or with washing
  • Mask fit
  • Comfort
  • Breathability and oxygen deprivation
  • Valve options
  • Killing as well as capturing viruses

Wearer factors

  • Age and immune response
  • Other medical conditions
  • Lung function
  • Activities

Environment

  • Virus load
  • Percentage of aerosols
  • Humidity
  • Air flow patterns
  • Benefits of capturing other contaminants

Virus Factors

Size and proliferation of Aerosols. We breathe in millions of particles per minute but must avoid just 10 viral particles. Small particles such as virus aerosols are invisible. This can provide a false sense of safety. In every cubic meter of air we inhale we also inhale 35 million particles greater than or equal to 0.5 microns in diameter.  We inhale even more  smaller particles in the 0.1 to 0.2 micron range  which is the size of the virus.  

The following table is designed to rate cleanrooms.

ISO 14644-1 Cleanroom Standards

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BS 5295 Cleanroom Standards

There are some reports that the minimum infectious dose for COVID -19 can be as low as 10 viral particles.  This means that if just a tiny fraction of the particles we inhale every minute are COVID we can become infected. For comparison purposes a pharmaceutical cleanroom typically is ISO 5.  The cleanest operating theaters in hospitals are ISO 4. The semiconductor industry spends billions of dollars per year to reach ISO 3. The task of keeping small particles such as viruses from occupying space is very difficult.

Many of the particles we inhale are long distance travelers. For example mercury emitted from gold mines in Brazil has been traced to the Artic. When a volcano erupted in Iceland the skies turned dark in Europe for weeks. Italian researchers have found COVOD on air pollution particles in the Lombardy region. Another takeaway is that social distancing has limited effectiveness.  Viruses travel on cigarette smoke sized particles.  So one way to view the task is to think that everyone you encounter is puffing away and you have to avoid even inhaling a few of his smoke particles.

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The percentage of virus in aerosols versus larger droplets:  Viruses attach to droplets or particles. They are only 0.1 microns in diameter but may be in droplets 20 microns in diameter or larger. Droplets in the 5 micron range can also be generated or can be the result of evaporation of larger droplets. In medical changing rooms in China higher viral loads have been noted. Viruses are also being aerosolized by cleaning the floor or from other surfaces.

Viral Load: The viral load varies by individual and activity.  A lusty super spreader singer was able to generate many thousands of aerosols and infect 45 people in just two hours.

Minimum Infectious Dose: There are reports that only 10 viral particles is enough to cause an infection.  Other views are that it generally requires a large number of particles over a period of time. Since large cough or sneeze droplets don’t travel far, social distancing is therefore the best way to avoid infection. However, if small numbers of airborne viruses can cause an infection then a whole different approach is needed.

Life of Virus: The virus is known to remain viable for hours in the air and for days on various surfaces.

Virus Rejuvenation from Dormancy: It has now been documented that viruses are not necessarily dead but just dormant as they travel through the air. They can then penetrate the lungs where the moisture revives them.

Creation of Aerosols from Viruses Leaving Surfaces: There are numerous cases tracking aerosols which were originally on surfaces such as floors or clothing.

Mask Factors

Efficiency of Various Masks in Removing Viruses: Masks vary in efficiency depending on the  media and the fit. Viruses average 120 nm in diameter but can be entrained in droplets larger than 300 nm. In general the efficiency improves with more media which means higher pressure drop. The meltblown media used with most N95 masks is electrostatically charged which improves capture efficiency.

The pressure drop impacts breathability. It increases as the square of velocity. So where there is lots of leakage such as the surgical mask with the gap below, the actual pressure drop is much lower than 2.5 Pa. this is because much of the air is bypassing the media. It is clear that surgical masks with gaps do not remove a big percentage of small particles.  Most homemade masks are even more inefficient.  In some cases a heavy cotton fabric is by itself quite efficient but with high resistance it will cause more air to bypass the mask. The takeaway is that the masks being worn by the public do not protect against virus aerosols.

Table 1. Filtration Efficiencies of Various Test Specimens at a Flow Rate of 1.2 CFM and the Corresponding Differential Pressure (ΔP) across the Specimens

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The analogy can be made between a garden house and a rainstorm.

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If you only want to remove large cough droplets its as easy as dodging a garden hose wielded by a baby.  If you want to stay dry in a major storm that is very challenging.

Various mask media options:  Surgical masks are made mostly with meltblown polypropylene.  The meltblown is sandwiched between two layers of spun bond media. There is an electrostatic effect which improves on the already high efficiency due to the fine fiber matrix. There are some new meltblown designs with claims of even higher efficiency at a given pressure drop.

There are a number of alternative materials which are now available commercially. They include nanofiber membranes which are claimed to have higher efficiency at a given pressure drop.  They are also washable. The media is available in large quantities.  In the case of Cummins the offering is based on media originally designed for filtering engine air intakes. In the case of Ahlstrom it is the use of surgical drapes. Berry is another supplier diverting media used from other applications.

Efficiency: Some of the newly available media has efficiencies rated at N99 or better. 3M already offers a range of options higher than N95 using meltblowns.  The question of a carbon layer and its impact on efficiency also needs to be addressed.

Wash ability: N95 masks with meltblown media can be decontaminated with UV light, H2O2 , or other means. Battelle reports ten time successful reuse of masks decontaminated with H2O2.  Masks made with membrane materials can be washed by various means and reused many times.  This reuse ability results in a better tight fitting mask with an affordable cost per use.

Efficiency reduction over time or with washing: The support structure as well as the mask media can deteriorate. The ability to separate the media and support structure means that the structure can provide longer term use.

Mask Fit: The mask fit is critical to providing protection. The more expensive reusable masks can provide that fit.

Comfort: N95 masks without valves but with a tight fit are uncomfortable to wear for long periods. The medical worker can endure the discomfort for a shift but it is unrealistic to think that  people will wear N95 tightfitting masks without valves throughout the day without serious negative impacts.

Breathability and oxygen deprivation: With a tight fitting N95 mask the quantity of air inhaled is down as much as 25%.  Some CO2 is re-entrained in the new breath. Two Korean 14 year olds  who were required to run in 1000 meter tests with their masks on died last month on the track.  The government has since suspended the requirement.

Valve options: There is a large industry which has flourished for many years. Masks with valves are purchased by those wanting  to protect themselves from air pollutants. In China there are Vogmask stores where all they sell are dozens of varieties of highly efficient designer masks.  They are equipped with one way valves which allow the air to be exhaled through the valve.

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Millions of people have been wearing these valve masks to protect themselves without concern about their potential contamination of others. Why is this not an important model for us to use going forward?

Killing as well as capturing viruses: A number of media designs incorporate silver or other materials which will kill bacteria and viruses.

Wearer factors

Age and immune response: The use of masks by the elderly is conditioned on the breathability.  It is unlikely that anyone with reduced lung function or heart problems could wear an N95 mask without a valve. Shouldn’t the type of mask be dictated by this need? Should the elderly be deprived of efficient masks because valves are prohibited?  Sacramento says:  Masks with valves are prohibited.  Lets consider mask recommendations by segment and not as one.

Other medical conditions: Those with impaired immune systems can probably justify an N99 Mask and tight fit. This will require use of a valve. The tight fit is also a function of the valve. If you are blowing air out around the edges of the mask you tend to expand the opening.

Lung function: The lung functions vary among individuals creating an important variable in mask selection.

Activities: Any job function involving physical labor including many meat processing jobs needs to take into account the importance of wearing a mask which does slow down oxygen intake.

Environment 

Virus load: The wearing of masks can be tailored to the viral load and therefore the risk.  There is a movement to develop a N-80 mask which would be less efficient than the N95 but more efficient than the typical surgical mask. Individuals could have all three mask options available.  They could decide where it is most appropriate to not wear a mask or to wear the N80 or N95.

Percentage of aerosols: The danger at any  point in time is a function of the percentage of the total viral load which is in the form of aerosols.

Humidity: In general higher humidity deters the virus when it arrives. The virus travels shorter distances in humid air than in dry air where the droplet size is smaller.

Air Flow Patterns: The viral load is in part determined by air flow. This important subject is dealt with in a separate analysis.

Benefits of capturing other contaminants: The coronavirus pandemic will subside at some point in time. There will be uncertainty about when and if it will return. Wearing an N90 mask may become as much a habit as drinking bottled water. Everyone is subjected to high air pollution levels at some point in time during the year. In some countries this is a daily occurrence. But even in others the mask will be justifiable. St Louis was meeting its particulate ambient emission goals and was assumed to be meeting its toxic metal goals which had been shown to track the total particulate. However, when the city installed monitors to directly measure toxic metals, they found spikes on days when the wind blew from the direction of a lead refinery.

Hospital acquired infections cause 1.7 million illnesses and 99,000 deaths per year in the U.S.  Patients would be well served to wear N95 masks

Mask Webinar on June 18 to Launch Debate on Protecting Wearer as Well as Those at Risk

A webinar will be held on January 18 at 10:AM CDT to discuss and debate the proposition:

Mask selection should be based on wearer needs first and then on needs of those at risk. 

This proposition is in conflict with certain ordinances which prohibit masks with valves.  It challenges conventional wisdom. However, the general premise that all individuals if protected by highly efficient masks could lead near normal lives would be of high importance to world economic recovery. The support or rejection of this proposition rests on determination of the following factors

Virus factors

  • The size and proliferation of aerosols
  • The percentage of virus in aerosols versus larger droplets
  • The viral load
  • Minimum infectious dose
  • Life of virus
  • Virus rejuvenation from dormancy
  • Creation of aerosols from viruses leaving surfaces

Mask Factors

  • Efficiency of various masks in removing viruses
  • Various mask media options
  • Wash ability
  • Efficiency reduction over time or with washing
  • Mask fit
  • Comfort
  • Breathability and oxygen deprivation
  • Valve options
  • Killing as well as capturing viruses

Wearer Factors

  • Age and immune response
  • Other medical conditions
  • Lung function
  • Activities

Environment

  • Virus load
  • Percentage of aerosols
  • Humidity
  • Air flow patterns
  • Benefits of capturing other contaminants

Insights are encouraged in advance and will be made available at the time of  webinar. These insights should address the factors and what is already said about them in the background document.  The session will be in a discussion format with each of the factors reviewed as warranted.

Send your comments to Bob McIlvaine This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 847 226 2391. 

To register for the webinar Click here

Cambridge has an Efficient and Comfortable Mask but with Valve

The pro mask uses a unique triple filter system which has been tested by Nelson and reaches N99 efficiency levels.

The first layer of the filter system catches larger pollution particles such as dust and PM10. It’s then backed up by the Three-Ply Micro Particulate which stops nearly 100% of smaller particulate matter such as PM2.5 and PM3.0.

The inner filtration layer is made from 100% pure activated carbon cloth, originally developed by the UK Ministry of Defense for chemical, biological, and nuclear warfare protection.

The carbon filter is treated with silver to ensure 99% of harmful pathogens are removed and killed. The filter material is comprised of a series of activated carbon filaments, each about 2,000 nanometers in diameter. Each filament is many times smaller than the typical grain size in standard carbon materials, making the rate of adsorption of pollutant gas much faster and therefore more powerful. It also means that bacteria and viruses are drawn to the filament surface much more efficiently, because there is so much more available surface than in a granular carbon.

The high number of filaments – spun into a yarn and then woven into cloth – makes the speed of adsorption extremely fast in a material that is still easy to breathe through. Not only are molecules such as pollutant gases and endotoxins quickly adsorbed into the pores from a much wider area, but the Van der Waals forces also attract and immobilize on the filament surface much larger particles including bacteria, which often have a negatively charged membrane. Together with the anti-bacterial silver added to the filament surface, the activated carbon cloth traps the bacteria and draws out the gel-like cytoplasm inside – killing it and preventing infection.

Cambridge uses  British military technology developed for chemical, nuclear, and biological warfare in the mask that’s manufactured in the UK. But the masks are assembled in Indonesia and China.

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Masks Performance Comparison

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Armbrust American Gearing Up to Manufacture Billions of N95 Masks per Year

Last week, Armbrust American, announced the close of a $5 million dollar investment round, and the official opening of their Austin, TX-area manufacturing facility.

The factory is currently ramping to produce 1.2 million masks per day, and Armbrust American has plans to scale production to billions annually if needed.

 Armbrust American says it can offer masks cheaper than Chinese suppliers, so that American's don't have to choose between Made-in-America quality and price. Individuals can purchase Austin, TX Made Medical Masks for $0.50 on Armbrust's website, with plans to bring prices down as production increases.

"Our Austin, TX lab uses automation to turn raw materials into quality surgical masks," said Lloyd  Armbrust, CEO. "And because we are so space efficient, we are even prepared to install unused assembly lines for the next potential crisis; making sure that America is never without the protection we need."

 When you click on the website to purchase you receive this message “This is a pre-order for a TEN (10) pack of our N95 masks that are pending NIOSH approval. 

The United States has very high standards for what we sell. Because of this, the approval process can take a very long time. We have spent the last five months designing and building our masks, and only recently received FDA Registration. We can now sell our Medical-Grade Facemasks made in Austin, TX--but we cannot move forward with selling our N95 masks until we receive NIOSH approval from the CDC.

The NIOSH approval process for selling N95 masks in the United States can take up to six months.

This order for a 10 pack for $39 will not ship until we receive NIOSH approval which is expected as early as September 2020.

This order will help us gage public interest and allow us to pre buy automated lines for our N95 masks. This means that as soon as we receive approval, we can ship your mask.”

Draeger has Long Term Contract to Deliver N95 Masks to HHS

The U.S. Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) issued an award to Dräger for the supply of National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health (NIOSH) approved N95 respiratory protection masks at the end of March. The contract is part of the recent government announcements concerning the supply of masks. As part of the contract Dräger plans to increase U.S. domestic production of the masks and expand its manufacturing footprint over the course of the contract. Deliveries will take place over the next 18 months with a focus on accelerated supply wherever possible.

“Respiratory protection has been at the core of our capabilities for over 110 years. Our N95 mask design offers superior comfort and breathability and is certified to the NIOSH standard for particle respiratory protection,” said President and CEO for Dräger in North America, Lothar Thielen. “This contract comes in addition to the ongoing work we are doing to protect frontline personnel in the fight against the pandemic. We are humbled to be able to support healthcare professionals and first responders with our Technology for Life, which spans both healthcare and safety applications. In addition we are proud to further increase our U.S. investments and manufacturing base in support of this contract.”

Dräger is an international leader in the fields of medical and safety technology. Our products protect, support, and save lives. Founded in 1889, Dräger generated revenues of almost EUR 2.8 billion in 2019. The Dräger Group is currently present in over 190 countries and has more than 14,500 employees worldwide

CDC Approves Powered Air Purifying Respirators

NIOSH-approved respirators are available in many types, models, and sizes from many manufacturers for a wide variety of uses in many occupational settings. The most common types of respirators in healthcare are N95 filtering facepiece respirators (FFRs), surgical N95 FFRs, and PAPRs.

Of these three options, many healthcare practitioners are the least familiar with PAPRs. A PAPR is an air-purifying respirator that uses a blower to force air through filter cartridges or canisters and into the breathing zone of the wearer. This process creates an air flow inside either a tight-fitting facepiece or loose-fitting hood or helmet, providing a higher assigned protection factor (APF) than the reusable elastomeric non-powered air-purifying half facepiece (half mask) or N95 FFRs. A PAPR can be used for protection during healthcare procedures in which HCP are exposed to greater risks of aerosolized pathogens causing acute respiratory infections.

A PAPR may have a tight-fitting half or full facepiece or a loose-fitting facepiece, hood, or helmet. It has an OSHA APF of at least 25 for loose-fitting hoods and helmets, 50 for tight-fitting half masks, and 1,000 for full facepiece types and some loose-fitting hoods and helmets where the manufacturer’s testing has demonstrated an APF of 1,000.

CDC has published recommendations for HCP respiratory protection and of commonly used NIOSH-approved, FDA-cleared, single-use filtering facepiece N95 surgical respirators. Properly fitted FFR and half facepiece reusable elastomeric respirators are expected to reduce exposures to one-tenth of the concentration that is in the air, based on OSHA’s APF of 10 for these respirator types. All PAPR APFs exceed the APF of 10 for N95 FFR or elastomeric half facepiece respirators.

PAPRs reduce the aerosol concentration inhaled by the wearer to at least 1/25th of that in the air, compared to a 1/10th reduction for FFRs and elastomeric half facepiece air-purifying respirators. OSHA assigns an APF of 1,000 to some PAPRs with hoods or helmets. However, employers must have evidence provided by the respirator manufacturer that testing of these respirators demonstrates performance at a level of protection of 1,000 to receive an APF of 1,000. Absent such evidence, PAPRs with loose-fitting helmets or hoods have an APF of 25. When used properly, PAPRs provide increased protection and decrease the likelihood of infection transmission to the wearer as compared to FFRs and half face reusable elastomeric respirators.

A variety of NIOSH-approved PAPR designs are available. Examples include those with tight-fitting facepieces and loose-fitting hoods or helmets, blower styles, battery types (e.g., Lithium ion, Nickel-Metal hydride, Nickel Cadmium) or over-the-counter disposable batteries, and high efficiency (HE) filters or filter cartridges. HE filters are 99.97% efficient against 0.3 micron particles. A PAPR may have adjustable air flow rates for added comfort and a range of cartridge protections some of which are solely for particulates (HE filters) and others which also protect against chemical gases and vapors that can be used to help protect against hazards associated with the handling of certain hazardous drugs and cleaning/disinfecting operations. The substantial PAPR product diversity provides flexibility to customize protection needed in a healthcare setting.

IQ Mask Uses HEPA Grade Filtration Media

IQAir Mask features a unique  exhaust valve design with an ultra-thin valve membrane for low air resistance and immediate air exchange. Many air pollution masks use ineffective material that wears out quickly due to moisture build-up and high filter material resistance – IQAir Mask ensures an even exchange of inhaled clean air and exhaled breaths while reducing moisture and CO2 build-up inside the mask to prevent drowsiness, headaches, or loss of energy.

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NEWS RELEASE                                                                                     May 2020

Markets Shaped by Coronavirus Technology and Pharmaceutical Solutions

All the air, water, energy and cleanroom markets for which McIlvaine forecasts future revenues will be greatly affected  by the Coronavirus. There  are two specific solutions which will mitigate the impact and allow return to a new normal.  One is Coronavirus Technology Solutions. This service with Daily Alerts is showing a path for safe resumption of near normal activities with filtered air, masks, monitoring, decontamination  and other PPE.

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Coronavirus Pharmaceutical Solutions analyzes the vaccines, therapies, reagents, and test kits which will also have major impact on the return to near normal. The first step is to find products  which will solve the problem but an equally big challenge is to produce the hundreds of millions of doses which would be necessary.

McIlvaine has been publishing Cleanroom Projects for many years. This service will help analyze the production quantities of new vaccines and therapies. It will also forecast the timing for effective use. The initial research and trials being carried on by hundreds of pharmaceutical companies need to be analyzed and determinations made about the future success of these products. Detailed tracking of each major product and the company or companies producing it is provided.   Click here for a sample profile of Gilead and remdesivir.

Going forward all the McIlvaine market reports will rely on these two analyses to help predict future markets. Despite the claims that we can resume normal routines even if millions die from COVID McIlvaine believes that this will not be the case. So near normal activity will return only with some combination of the two solutions.

Example: McIlvaine is analyzing the impact on media suppliers such as Berry Global. The company has over $12 billion in global sales with home, health and personal care accounting for 30% of the total. Consumer packaging and other businesses are hurt by the pandemic.

Under a base case where the situation continues to slowly improve the relative magnitude on normal business could be a negative 14 whereas growth opportunities would be a positive 10.  Air filtration media will be needed to capture the virus. On the other hand the Merv 8 market may be reduced by the selection of more efficient media. There will be reduced purchases in some of the air filter segments associated with industrial activity. There will be minor positive impact on liquid filtration media. A large number of vaccine and therapy plants will be built. They will use cartridges. But this revenue will be offset by slowdown in food, chemical, and energy which are major cartridge consumers.  Reemay cartridges are also used in the pool and spa markets which are being negatively impacted.

Berry is expanding mask media production in France, Germany, and the U.S. A big initiative is a new mask for the general population. The newly introduced Synergex ONE provides a multilayer nonwoven composite product in a single sheet, as an alternative to traditional face mask layer structures. This new material will be manufactured in Europe and serve the European market and is available immediately. the near term potential is modest but longer term this product could be a leading revenue generator for the company.  If three billion people average mask purchases of $10/yr the market would be  60 billon or five times greater than the present sales of Berry.

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More gown media will also be sold. There will be a greater positive than negative effect on wipes. Consumer packaging and other business will be negatively impacted by an amount which will offset any gains from coronavirus related activities. The Berry analysis is shown at: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/images/berry_2020-05-19.pdf

For all the companies supplying air, water, cleanroom, and energy products the future depends on the answer to few questions. To what extent does coronavirus travel like cigarette smoke long distances and retain viability over time?  When will successful vaccines and therapies be available?  Will outbreaks reoccur each year? Will people take advantage of the technology solutions? Every market forecast needs to make assumptions about the answers to these questions.

Details on the reports are available at www.mcilvainecompany.com

For more information contact Bob McIlvaine at This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.  847 226 2391

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                     May 2020

Mask Webinar on June 18 to Launch Debate on Protecting Wearer as Well as Those at Risk

A webinar will be held on January 18 at 10:AM CDT to discuss and debate the proposition:

 Mask selection should be based on wearer needs first and then on needs of those at risk. 

This proposition is in conflict with certain ordinances which prohibit masks with valves.  It challenges conventional wisdom. However, the general premise that all individuals if protected by highly efficient masks could lead near normal lives would be of high importance to world economic recovery. The support or rejection of this proposition rests on determination of the following factors

Virus factors

  • The size and proliferation of aerosols
  • The percentage of virus in aerosols versus larger droplets
  • The viral load
  • Minimum infectious dose
  • Life of virus
  • Virus rejuvenation from dormancy
  • Creation of aerosols from viruses leaving surfaces

Mask Factors

  • Efficiency of various masks in removing viruses
  • Various mask media options
  • Wash ability
  • Efficiency reduction over time or with washing
  • Mask fit
  • Comfort
  • Breathability and oxygen deprivation
  • Valve options
  • Killing as well as capturing viruses

Wearer Factors

  • Age and immune response
  • Other medical conditions
  • Lung function
  • Activities

Environment

  • Virus load
  • Percentage of aerosols
  • Humidity
  • Air flow patterns
  • Benefits of capturing other contaminants

Insights are encouraged in advance and will be made available at the time of  the webinar. These insights should address the factors and what is already said about them in the background document.  The session will be in a discussion format with each of the factors reviewed as warranted.

To register for the webinar Click here

Send your comments to Bob McIlvaine This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it. 847 226 2391. 

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                     May 2020

Win the War with Coronavirus Technology Solutions

Shelter in place may have won the first battle but not the war with COVID. The war needs to be won not by defense but by attacking with the right strategy and weapons. Attacking without regard to lives lost is similar to the slaughter in the trenches in WWI.

The weapons are available to win the war with minimum sacrifice. New research shows that the enemy has airborne capabilities of which we previously were unaware. But there is newly developed technology for a successful attack.  Coronavirus Technology Solutions provides the successful battle plan. It is based on understanding the needs and the ways to meet those needs.

It starts with anticipating  the potential case load by season and country in the coming months under various scenarios. This analysis defines the needs.

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A proactive program is then formulated around those needs. Implementation includes obtaining agreement as to the efficacy of the program. The new research shows that it is not the foot soldiers but the air force which is the biggest danger. This needs to be communicated. The devil is in the details. For each factor we need to consider a number of variables.

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Potential Case Load:  When there are reports of the minimum infectious dose being as low as 10 virions combined with reports that a lusty singer in a Washington state church choir was able to exhale thousands of virions per minute and infect 45 out 60 safely distanced members it is clear that the enemy air force is a real danger.  McIlvaine has been involved for decades in the analysis of transmission of small particles in the air. This phenomenon is at the heart of air pollution, indoor air and cleanroom technology where McIlvaine has multiple publications.

The potential case load is also a function of development of new vaccines and therapies and the production of sufficient quantities to protect billions of people. This requires a huge investment not only by pharmaceutical companies but by contract manufacturing organizations (CMOs).   McIlvaine has a service which is tracking the progress of each potential vaccine and therapy.  Forecasts for a range filtration products are being made in part based on assumptions relative to the success and timing of vaccine and therapy availability.

Identify Needs:  Removing aerosols requires filter media which removes 0.3 micron particles but allows the wearer to breathe easily. There is a scarcity of meltblown filter media but nanofiber membrane media is available which is washable and meets the requirements.  McIlvaine is tracking the availability of media as well as reagents and other test kit components.

Design Proactive Program: There is a combination of systems, components and consumables which need to be available and in combination provide safety at reasonable costs. These products and services are being analyzed on a daily basis.

Implement the Program:  McIlvaine is interfacing with hospitals, food processors, restaurants and other end users. It is conducting webinars with presentations by experts in filtration and healthcare. A bridge between suppliers and users is created.

Collaboration:  The pandemic is a problem for the world. The fact that the demand is peaking at different times in different countries offers an opportunity for a world approach. The fact that South Korea can supply large numbers of test kits is because of a large investment in automated cleanrooms. It is no coincidence that Samsung Biologics provides more than a quarter of the world’s contract biopharmaceutical production. The first successful vaccine could come from any country. Suppliers can also collaborate to a much greater extent. Suppliers of foot sanitizers, walk through temperature scanners, fan filter units and air monitors all have complementary products.

Cost effective and Safe Solution:  The program provides a way to return to near normal quickly and safely. 

Click here for more information on Coronavirus Technology Solutions.  Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at 847 226 2391 or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

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