NEWS RELEASE May 2020
Markets Shaped by Coronavirus Technology and Pharmaceutical Solutions
All the air, water, energy and cleanroom markets for which McIlvaine forecasts future revenues will be greatly affected by the Coronavirus. There are two specific solutions which will mitigate the impact and allow return to a new normal. One is Coronavirus Technology Solutions. This service with Daily Alerts is showing a path for safe resumption of near normal activities with filtered air, masks, monitoring, decontamination and other PPE.
Coronavirus Pharmaceutical Solutions analyzes the vaccines, therapies, reagents, and test kits which will also have major impact on the return to near normal. The first step is to find products which will solve the problem but an equally big challenge is to produce the hundreds of millions of doses which would be necessary.
McIlvaine has been publishing Cleanroom Projects for many years. This service will help analyze the production quantities of new vaccines and therapies. It will also forecast the timing for effective use. The initial research and trials being carried on by hundreds of pharmaceutical companies need to be analyzed and determinations made about the future success of these products. Detailed tracking of each major product and the company or companies producing it is provided. Click here for a sample profile of Gilead and remdesivir.
Going forward all the McIlvaine market reports will rely on these two analyses to help predict future markets. Despite the claims that we can resume normal routines even if millions die from COVID McIlvaine believes that this will not be the case. So near normal activity will return only with some combination of the two solutions.
Example: McIlvaine is analyzing the impact on media suppliers such as Berry Global. The company has over $12 billion in global sales with home, health and personal care accounting for 30% of the total. Consumer packaging and other businesses are hurt by the pandemic.
Under a base case where the situation continues to slowly improve the relative magnitude on normal business could be a negative 14 whereas growth opportunities would be a positive 10. Air filtration media will be needed to capture the virus. On the other hand the Merv 8 market may be reduced by the selection of more efficient media. There will be reduced purchases in some of the air filter segments associated with industrial activity. There will be minor positive impact on liquid filtration media. A large number of vaccine and therapy plants will be built. They will use cartridges. But this revenue will be offset by slowdown in food, chemical, and energy which are major cartridge consumers. Reemay cartridges are also used in the pool and spa markets which are being negatively impacted.
Berry is expanding mask media production in France, Germany, and the U.S. A big initiative is a new mask for the general population. The newly introduced Synergex ONE provides a multilayer nonwoven composite product in a single sheet, as an alternative to traditional face mask layer structures. This new material will be manufactured in Europe and serve the European market and is available immediately. the near term potential is modest but longer term this product could be a leading revenue generator for the company. If three billion people average mask purchases of $10/yr the market would be 60 billon or five times greater than the present sales of Berry.
More gown media will also be sold. There will be a greater positive than negative effect on wipes. Consumer packaging and other business will be negatively impacted by an amount which will offset any gains from coronavirus related activities. The Berry analysis is shown at: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/images/berry_2020-05-19.pdf
For all the companies supplying air, water, cleanroom, and energy products the future depends on the answer to few questions. To what extent does coronavirus travel like cigarette smoke long distances and retain viability over time? When will successful vaccines and therapies be available? Will outbreaks reoccur each year? Will people take advantage of the technology solutions? Every market forecast needs to make assumptions about the answers to these questions.
Details on the reports are available at www.mcilvainecompany.com