NEWS RELEASE                                                                                   May 2023

Forecasting AWE Systems is Essential for Product Forecasting

Mcilvaine is now offering forecasts for the entire range of AWE systems and products. One of the reasons is that each choice impacts others. Another is that system forecasts need to be long range and shape the product forecasts.

An example is SO2 removal systems for coal fired power plants. Presently there are dozens of system options which will affect the markets for the following products.

Products Used in SO2 Removal Systems

The system choice shapes the product selection, but the reverse is also true. Spray towers for large SO2 systems can require 400,000 gpm of abrasive and corrosive slurry. Only a handful of companies make 50,000 gpm pumps. So, 8 would be needed plus spares. This is an incentive to choose turbulent scrubbers which require only half as much slurry. However, this choice increases the fan energy requirement.

Another option is to use lime instead of limestone as a reagent. The operating cost due to the price of lime is higher but the capital cost is reduced with smaller scrubbers, pumps, valves, filters etc. A recent discovery is that lime gypsum (as opposed to limestone) is whiter and can be used for purposes other than wallboard and higher prices achieved.

Another option is dry scrubbing using a spray drier and fabric filters. About 5% of the worlds FGD systems are dry. Incentives include lower costs and water saving. The negatives are the use of lime and the unsuitability of the product for wallboard.

A new development is bioenergy and carbon capture and sequestration (BECCS). The 4000 MW Drax station in the UK now uses wood pellets imported from the U.S. Pellets replaced coal as the boiler fuel. Drax has wet spray towers which are being retained. New CO2 scrubbers are being added. A pipeline is being built to sequester the CO2 into the depths of the North Sea.

Environmentalists are using Drax as the prime example of carbon negative technology. If coal plants around the world switched to this approach, we would be reducing the CO2 levels in the atmosphere.

Coal plant developers in Asia need to think through their choice of SO2 removal systems based on the potential to switch to BECCS in the future.

Another discovery is that by using pre scrubbers to capture HCl and particulate rare earths can be recovered very economically.

SO2 capture is just one example of the many system options which shape product choices. Some even elevate the product into a process system. Homogenization of various foods is rapidly gaining popularity. One option is a combination of pumps and valves rather than traditional mixers. So, simultaneous analysis of the system and product markets is important.

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                   May 2023

686,000 Cleanroom Filter Forecasts Plus the Facts and Factors to Create Them

The facts and factors have been created and used to provide forecasts for cleanroom filters in every country and industry based on the cleanroom space in ft2 both for new additions and existing plants in each cleanroom class. The many facts and factors utilized in calculating space are discussed elsewhere. This analysis deals with how that data is used to generate the filter revenues and units as follows.

• The number of new HEPA filter units based on 2x4 fan filter units with 650 cfm each.
• The revenues for HEPA filter sales for new projects.
• The replacement HEPA filter units based on a 5-year life but adjusted to 4 to take into account various reasons for additional filter purchases for existing plants.
• The replacement HEPA filter revenues
• Pre-filter units sold for new projects.
• Pre-filter revenues for new projects.
• Pre-filter units sold for replacement.
• Pre-filter revenues for replacement based on MERV 7 and 6-month life.

These factors are applied to 80 countries x 5 cleanroom classifications x 11 industries x 12 years (2016-28) x 13 application/process categories resulting in 686,000 forecasts.

The cost of HEPA filters was derived as 50% of the retail price and reflects the revenue received by the HEPA filter producer.

Here is an example of the excel files starting with existing space for class 100,000 rooms. 

The cleanroom filter forecasts can be provided at a discount to subscribers to either the cleanroom or air filter report or can be purchased separately. For more information call Bob Mcilvaine at 847 226 2391 or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                   May 2023

Forecasting the Hydrogen Opportunity for Each AWE Product

Hydrogen revenues for Air, Water, Energy companies are already more than $12 billion per year and promise to increase at double digit rates. In the short-term blue hydrogen will be the biggest revenue producer for AWE companies. One reason is that the accompanying carbon capture and sequestration requires major investments in AWE products.

There are many processes which include AWE products. Mcilvaine is analyzing each process and determining the opportunity in each.

By providing detailed forecasts for each product the cost of intensive research is distributed.

If the local salesman has forecasts for his territory and general management has forecasts for each product in each country. A clearly defined and robust sales program can be created. The new Hydrogen Niche Most Profitable Market (MPM) program provides over 2 million sub niche forecasts which can be aggregated into the most profitable combinations to provide niches large enough to create the foundation not only of sales but business strategy.

Most Profitable AWE Hydrogen Program

Most of the largest suppliers have multiple products to offer for these applications.

• The local Atlas Copco compressor salesman can also sell valves and pumps thanks to strategic acquisitions.
• Parker Hannifin can package high pressure hose, fittings, filters, instrumentation, O rings, seals, valves,

and complete piping systems.

• Danaher through Pall furnishes cross flow filters and cartridges for gas and liquids. The Hach division supplies measurement of liquids and gases while ChemTreat supplies treatment chemicals.
• Mitsubishi offers a number of hydrogen processes. It also provides the gas turbines to combust hydrogen. But since hydrogen creates more NOX than methane, the system needs to include a Mitsubishi SCR system. The MHI absorber for CO2 removal is an important component in blue hydrogen.
• Andritz has its own large scale electrolyzer which can use electricity from an Andritz hydropower plant. It has the air pollution control systems for blue hydrogen and has a guide and control system with Metris. It also has separators, filters, and heat exchangers.
• Alfa Laval is supplying heat exchangers for the world’s largest green hydrogen plant. It also offers separators, filters, and other AWE products.

The orders for AWE products will be coming from hydrogen producers and users but also from the system and process suppliers.

Processes which are utilized include:

• Absorption
• Adsorption
• Catalytic reaction
• Combustion
• Cryogenics
• Drying
• filtration
• Heat exchange
• mixing
• Purification
• Separation
• Size reduction or granulation

These processes in turn need the following support systems:

• Air pollution control
• Clean water
• Compressed air
• Power
• Wastewater treatment

The systems, processes, and support systems in turn need flow control including:

• Blowers
• Compressors
• Fans
• Hose, tubing, piping
• Pumps
• Seals, gaskets, expansion joints
• Treatment chemicals
• Valves
• Variable speed drives

The various processes) need to be managed by

• Guide (programs and IOT)
• Control (computers, servers)
• Measurement including liquids, gases, and free flowing solids.

Unique materials are needed for a combination of temperature, pressure, abrasion, and corrosion challenges.

• Materials of construction including stainless, ceramics, polymers
• Coatings
• Filtration and coalescing media

The opportunities for AWE suppliers fall into two distinct categories:

• Small discrete
• Process and large discrete

The largest small discrete market is fuel cells for the automotive industry.

The process and large discrete opportunities can be segmented as follows:

Process and Large Discrete Hydrogen Opportunities

The embryonic nature of the market is an incentive to quantify every market niche. This is explained at: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/news/47-uncategorised/news/1749-nr2729

The level of detail for each product is illustrated by this Hydrogen Valve market example: http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/news/47-uncategorised/news/1749-nr2729

For more information on AWE Most Profitable Hydrogen Program contact Bob Mcilvaine at 847 226 2391 or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.

NEWS RELEASE                                                                                   May 2023

25% of Air, Water, Energy (AWE) People Rely on Sales Forecasts

Every phone call by your salesmen is based on the potential purchases. Every decision on exhibitions is based on geographic and industry forecasts. The decision to expand a plant or personnel is made based on anticipated demand.

An AWE company with 2000 employees will have 400 people relying on as many as 50,000 forecasts resulting in decisions which impact EBITDA.

If these 50,000 forecasts are so important is there a way to improve their accuracy and better communicate them?

The following aspects need to be considered.

• There are benefits to replacing generalizations with actual numbers.
• Some decentralized individual participation in the process is beneficial.
• All forecasts should be based as much as possible on relevant facts and factors and not the guess of an expert.
• Each of the 400 people relying on forecasts has superior   insights on facts and factors in his niche.
• If he is given the numbers along with the facts and factors, he can revise the numbers for his niche.

In the Mcilvaine Most Profitable Market (MPM) Program a website is set up for the corporation. Employees are given passwords to applicable sections of the site. Hundreds of thousands of forecasts are posted and revised on a continuing basis. All the relevant facts and factors behind the forecasts are also provided. For example, a standard price in U.S dollars is provided for a specific product regardless of the geographical point of sale. If the salesman in Indonesia has not just the revenue but the number of units and price per unit, he can adjust the forecasts based on unique pricing in his country.

A formal corporate wide program is desirable. But the approach can just be used by those who request access. In fact, the program can start with just a few participants and be broadened as the merits are demonstrated.

Relevant forecasts for the 2000-person company need to be an aggregation of niche numbers. The $10 trillion air, water, energy market is comprised of 10 million sub niches. A reliable forecast on which to build a business strategy should be an aggregation of niche forecasts.

The company with revenue likely as multiple products sold to multiple industries in a number of countries. With the MPM program forecasts through 2028 are provided for each sub niche. A custom FFF Alert (Facts, Factors, Forecasts) is provided to interested personnel on a monthly basis. Zoom meetings can be scheduled as warranted. Custom consulting is available as needed. This approach avoids administrative burdens and will be easy to implement.

For more information on the program contact Bob Mcilvaine at 847 226 2391 or This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.