NEWS RELEASE NOVEMBER 2015
$100 Billion Annual Gas Turbine Market
Worldwide installations of new gas turbines will average 74,000 MW per year over the next five years. The system sales revenue will be $75 billion per year. GE, Siemens and the other turbine vendors will generate revenues of $20 billion/yr. just for the turbine equipment. This is the latest projection in 59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Programpublished by the McIlvaine Company.
The worldwide installed gas turbine capacity is 1.5 million MW. Purchases of repair parts consumables and upgrades at existing power plants will average $30 billion/yr. Part of this investment will be a result of greenhouse gas initiatives. The least expensive way to reduce the carbon footprint is to make the existing gas turbine more efficient. Adding the steam cycle makes the biggest difference but there are other options as well. Inlet filter replacement for existing units will be more than $500 million. Another $460 million will be spent for SCR systems and catalyst per year. The market for replacement parts for pumps and valves will be significant.
The gas turbine equipment suppliers purchase most of the components they furnish as part of turbine packages. Complete turnkey systems, including the gas turbine, steam turbine, cooling towers, HRSG, SCR, etc. are sold by a number of companies who do not manufacture turbines. Despite the fact that the purchaser could be an end user, a system supplier or an EPC, the number of companies purchasing filters, treatment chemicals, instrumentation, pumps and valves is very limited.
Those suppliers selling hardware for new power plants need to contact the operators, the system suppliers and the engineering companies. Those selling consumables have a more limited target.
It terms of end users, there are less than 100 power plant operators who will buy most of the equipment and consumables. E.ON has 23,000 MW of gas turbines in operation while Calpine has 26,000 MW. Together they have over 3 percent of the world’s installed capacity. The number of system suppliers and engineering companies is also limited. Black & Veatch, Burns & McDonnell, Sargent & Lundy, Bechtel, Kiewit and a few other U.S. based architect engineers do a lion’s share of the engineering work.
The number of equipment vendors is even more limited. GE had a 49 percent of the global gas turbine market last year, followed by Siemens with 23 percent, Mitsubishi Hitachi with 17 percent and Alstom with 2 percent. With the purchase of Alstom, the GE share will rise above 50 percent. In addition, GE has made a huge investment in a new more efficient design which may boost their share well above 50 percent.
GE’s new flagship, HA Turbines, will be the largest and most efficient in their class. The first delivery was to EDF’s Bouchain combined cycle power plant in France in August and is now being installed. The first U.S. order is from Exelon. Four 7HA turbines intended for expansions at the Wolf Hollow and Colorado Bend plants in Texas are expected to come online in 2017.
The 50-hertz 9HA and 60-hertz 7HA both come in two different models. The 9HA.01 is rated at 397 MW in simple cycle mode and 592 MW in 1 x 1 combined cycle mode, while the 9HA.02 is rated at 510 MW in simple cycle and 755 MW in combined cycle. The 7HA.01 and 7HA.02, meanwhile, are rated at 275 MW and 405 MW and 337 MW and 468 MW, respectively.
Both designs can achieve better than 41 percent efficiency in simple cycle and more than 61 percent in combined cycle. GE says the 9HA.01—the model slated for Bouchain—can reach full power in 30 minutes and ramp at 60 MW per minute.
GE already has $1 billion in firm orders for 7HA and 9HA turbines—16 units so far—and 53 potential projects around the world have opted for the turbines. GE hopes to sell up to 500 of the new design by 2030, which could represent up to half of its gas turbine sales.
For hardware purchased directly by gas turbine suppliers, one company represents more than 50 percent of the potential and three companies combine for 90 percent.
Most suppliers have a direct sales force for large customers and a network of sales representatives or distributors for the balance of sales. Since 70 percent of the sales will be to less than 100 large operators, equipment suppliers and engineering companies, it is important to focus on the direct sales effort. McIlvaine has developed Detailed Forecasts of Markets, Prospects and Projects which is included along with 59EI Gas Turbine and Combined Cycle Supplier Program.