NEWS RELEASE October 2017
Five Companies will be Responsible for 39 Percent of the Combust, Flow and Treat Purchases in the Nuclear Power Sector Next Year
Global nuclear power generation is now predicted to grow by 2.3 percent per annum out to 2035, mainly due to 11 percent annual growth in China. China’s operating nuclear generating capacity will double over the next five years under the country’s recently-published 13th Five-Year Plan.
Under that plan, over the next five years combust flow and treat hardware and parts expenditures for existing plants next year will be four times greater than for new plants. Guide, control, and measure hardware investments will be ten times greater for existing plants than new ones in 2018. Service and remote monitoring will be 50 times greater for existing plants than the new ones (during the first year of operation).
Over 90 percent of the combust, flow and treat expenditures will be made by fewer than 50 companies. Thirty-nine percent will be made by just three operators and one supplier.
Bechtel has completed more than 74,000 megawatts of new nuclear generation capacity, and has performed engineering and/or construction services on more than 80 percent of nuclear plants in the United States and 150 worldwide. It employs 2,200 nuclear professionals, which include approximately 150 internationally recognized technical specialists who have been published widely, and have participated in developing industry standards and guidelines. It is a major influence in ten percent of the combust, flow and treat decisions.
EDF has acquired Areva and then restructured the New NP reactor business to allow minority share purchases by Mitsubishi Heavy Industries and Assystem. In addition to operating 70,000 MW of nuclear power in France the company is negotiating the sale of nuclear power plants in China, India, South Africa and Saudi Arabia. Therefore, it is responsible for 20 percent of the nuclear combust, flow and treat decisions.
Korea Electric Power (KEPCO) is a nuclear power operator with a capacity of 23,116 MW. It is operating 25 nuclear power units as of 2016 with five under construction. It will make five percent of the combust, flow and treat purchasing decisions in 2018.
Exelon has consolidated nuclear power operations in the U.S. and is now operating plants with a capacity of over 19,000 MW. It will make four percent of the 2018 combust, flow and treat decisions.
|Nuclear Power Plant Combust, Flow and Treat Purchases 2018 - $ millions|
|Macrofiltration (Belt Presses, Sand Filters)||200||40||20||10||8|
|Sedimentation and Centrifugation||300||60||30||15||12|
|Variable Speed Drives and Motors||600||120||60||30||24|
|RO/UF/MF Cross Flow Membrane Systems||200||40||20||10||8|
|Air Purification and Protection||400||80||40||20||16|
These estimates are very approximate and involve problems with the precise defined scope. Orders are booked in one period. Revenue might be realized in a series of succeeding periods. The purchasing decision may be shared between the OEM, the EPC and the operator. Some decisions will be made at the plant level. Others will be made at the corporate level. However, with the rapid deployment of IIoT more and more decisions will be made at the corporate operator level. Process management system companies will be an increasing influence.
Forecasts for the individual purchasers provide an important tool for suppliers. Most already have separate sales efforts for the large purchasers. IIoT will result in most decisions being made or specified at the corporate level. So the OEM sales effort will need to expand.
Forecasts of individual operator purchases are equivalent to pieces of a puzzle. The sales forecast is built upon a picture puzzle for which many of the pieces are missing. The more pieces which are fitted together, the more accurate the picture becomes.
McIlvaine is providing combust, flow and treat forecasts for more than 550 companies. They appear in the various market reports. The guide, control and measure forecasts for individual nuclear power generators and suppliers are included in N031 Industrial IoT and Remote O&M The nuclear valve forecasts appear in the Industrial Valves World Markets which also has a supplemental analysis for the 5000 high performance valves in an Areva system. There are market reports covering each of the subject areas found in MARKETS LINK. The profiles of individual power companies and suppliers are included in the Utility Tracking System 42EI Utility Tracking System.