NEWS RELEASE April 2019
U.S. Petrochemical Companies will increase IIoT and Remote O&M Purchases by 8%/yr through 2025
U.S. petrochemical producers are increasing their IIoT and Remote O&M investments per ton of product at the same time they are accelerating the construction of new plants to take advantage of the low cost feedstocks in the U.S. Just within the last few months the major oil companies have made clear their intention to invest a higher percentage of capital on U.S. shale oil and gas extraction. Chevron believes that it can extract oil at a cost as low as $15 per barrel. ExxonMobil believes it can be profitable with $30/bbl oil. Both companies are expecting the U.S. liquids production to be 25 million bl/d by 2025. This compares to IEA and OPEC forecasts for the U.S. production at just half this amount.
The impact on the petrochemical industry will be substantial. The availability of cheap and abundant feedstocks such as ethane make the U.S. Shale Crescent in the East and the Permian basin in the Southwest ideal locations for new production facilities. The U.S. Congress just received a report from the Secretary of Energy which predicts that the Eastern U.S. will become a petrochemical and plastics manufacturing hub. A detailed analysis by the McIlvaine Company built on specific projects and plans concludes that the U.S. petrochemical IIoT and remote O&M market will grow by 8%/yr vs 6.5%/yr for the rest of the world.
World Petrochemical Combust, Flow, Treat IIoT and Remote O&M Revenues
|$ billions||%||$ billions|
|IIoT and Remote O&M - Total||1.9||7.1||9.0||51||4.6|
|Measure - Liquids||0.2||0.8||1.0||50||0.5|
|Measure - Gases||0.2||0.6||0.8||50||0.4|
|Measure - Solids||0.1||0.3||0.4||50||0.2|
The U.S IIoT and Remote O&M opportunity will approach $2 billion per year by 2025. There is a Most Profitable Market (MPM) segment which includes those products where a clear lowest total cost of ownership can be established. The total U.S. IIoT market in 2025 will be $1.9 billion but the MPM market will be close to $1 billion.
The guide segment will account for 25 percent of the total as petrochemical companies continue to accelerate purchases of process management software systems. Nearly $500 million will be spent on instrumentation.
There will be a number of technical challenges as shale gases with varying percentages of ethane and other natural gas liquids are converted into ethylene and other petrochemical products. In recent years the automaton market growth in the U.S. has been less than in Asia. This has handicapped suppliers whose primary strengths lie outside Asia. The opportunity to maximize profits in the U.S. market is therefore unique. Many of the automation markets such as coal fired boilers are mature. This reduces the profit potential because of the emphasis on price to sustain revenues. A growing market is much more likely to result in maximum profits.
The McIlvaine N031 Industrial IoT and Remote O&M provides forecasts for five product categories in every country in every industry. This analysis provides the basis for determining the Most Profitable Market in a program explained at http://home.mcilvainecompany.com/index.php/component/content/article/30-general/1469-most-profitable-market-program
The program also is customized for forecasts for specific products such as gas chromatographs and control of pressure, temperature, level, flow and other parameters.
The program also supports forecasts of the Most Profitable Market at each of the petrochemical producers such as, Dow, Chevron, SABIC, Total, Shell and LyondellBasell. Continuing adjustments in the forecasts for individual prospects are provided with N049 Oil, Gas, Shale and Refining Markets and Projects