Chemical Industry Direct Sales Program Candidates

Forecasts of combust, flow and treat products can be obtained for each plant and each corporation based on plant capacity. The investment for new products, replacement products and repairs can all be related to projected and existing capacity. The power industry forecasts start with the capacity of each generator. Municipal wastewater forecasts can be determined based on the MGD of primary and secondary treatment. The same approach can be used for refineries. Pulp and paper forecasts can be achieved with tons/yr of pulp. Mining is more of a challenge because purchases vary with each type of ore.

The industry which is most challenging is the chemical/fertilizer industry. There are many different products requiring many different processes. This necessitates forecasting production of each chemical and then grouping these chemicals by common requirements. For example, TDI, Cl, and MOP/DAP all include processes with highly corrosive fluids. The forecasts for corrosion resistant products for each plant can be determined based on the production or usage of corrosive chemicals at each plant. Here is an example tabulation for chlorine.

The same procedure can then be repeated for other corrosive chemicals and forecasts made for each CFT product. McIlvaine routinely forecasts purchases for the top 30 chemical companies. However, many of the top purchasers of corrosion resistant products are not in the top group for all CFT products. The challenge is to segment the corrosion resistant purchases separately from the others. The following companies are all significant purchasers of corrosion resistant products.

This group includes the top 20 chemical companies and the top companies in the chlorine, TDI and MAP, DAP segments. Exxon is the seventh largest purchaser of valves in the chemical industry (their oil, gas and refining purchases are determined separately). However, they are not a major player in production of the three corrosive chemicals displayed in this chart.

Advanced Forecasting to determine the purchases of a specific product by a specific company in the next year allows for a direct effort by the supplier well in advance of the actual purchase. This effort can result in specifications and decisions ahead of time which greatly improve the order potential. The cost of this type of analysis is no longer prohibitive.