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Chemical Industry Direct Sales Program Candidates

Forecasts of combust, flow and treat products can be obtained for each plant and each corporation based on plant capacity. The investment for new products, replacement products and repairs can all be related to projected and existing capacity. The power industry forecasts start with the capacity of each generator. Municipal wastewater forecasts can be determined based on the MGD of primary and secondary treatment. The same approach can be used for refineries. Pulp and paper forecasts can be achieved with tons/yr of pulp. Mining is more of a challenge because purchases vary with each type of ore.

The industry which is most challenging is the chemical/fertilizer industry. There are many different products requiring many different processes. This necessitates forecasting production of each chemical and then grouping these chemicals by common requirements. For example, TDI, Cl, and MOP/DAP all include processes with highly corrosive fluids. The forecasts for corrosion resistant products for each plant can be determined based on the production or usage of corrosive chemicals at each plant. Here is an example tabulation for chlorine.

France - 2017 Chlorine Production – kT/yr
Company Location Production
PPChemicals Thann 43
Vencorex Pont de Claix 170
Kem One Fos 340
Arkema Jarrie 72
Kem One Lavera 363
Arkema St. Auban 20
MSSA Pomblière 42
PC Harbonnières Harbonnières 23
Inovyn Tavaux 360
PC Loos Loos 18
Total   1451

The same procedure can then be repeated for other corrosive chemicals and forecasts made for each CFT product. McIlvaine routinely forecasts purchases for the top 30 chemical companies. However, many of the top purchasers of corrosion resistant products are not in the top group for all CFT products. The challenge is to segment the corrosion resistant purchases separately from the others. The following companies are all significant purchasers of corrosion resistant products.

CFT Purchases by Process and Revenue - 2018 Chemical Industry Example  
 

TDI

Cl

MOP/

DAP #

2018

Rank

Valves

$ mill

Plastic

Rubber

Ceramic

Thermal

Spray

Other CFT products

Air Liquide         84        

6 types of On/off Valves

6 types of Control Valves

4 types of Pumps

13 types of Treatment Chemicals

Stack gas Neutralizing Agents such as lime and sodium

4 types of Cartridges

6 types of Liquid Filtration equipment

5 types of Sedimentation /Centrifugation equipment

Cross-Flow RO, UF, MF membranes

Ultrapure Water Systems

Stainless Steel plate

FRP Vessels and Piping

Thermal Coatings

Hose and Couplings

Drives and Motors

Dampers and Stacks

Ductwork

HVAC Filters

Agrium     10            
Akzo Nobel   x     80        
Anwil                  
Aventis                  
BASF x x   2 311 Analysis with 150 slides
Braskem         69        
Bayer                  
Belaruskali                  
Covestro   x     65        
CUF                  
Degussa                  
DOW-Dupont x x   1 339 Analysis with 100 slides
DSM                  
Ercos                  
Evonik         73        
Exxon       7 137 Also separate oil/gas forecasts
Formosa x     5 142        
                       

This group includes the top 20 chemical companies and the top companies in the chlorine, TDI and MAP, DAP segments. Exxon is the seventh largest purchaser of valves in the chemical industry (their oil, gas and refining purchases are determined separately). However, they are not a major player in production of the three corrosive chemicals displayed in this chart.

Advanced Forecasting to determine the purchases of a specific product by a specific company in the next year allows for a direct effort by the supplier well in advance of the actual purchase. This effort can result in specifications and decisions ahead of time which greatly improve the order potential. The cost of this type of analysis is no longer prohibitive.