NEWS RELEASE April 2022
Continuous HVAC Filter Forecasts Needed in These Uncertain Times
There are major changes in the HVAC filter market and even greater changes in the media which will be used in those filters. The McIlvaine Company is forecasting both the media and filter revenue.
The future market will be determined by two major influences
- International conflict
- Life quality perceptions
The most profitable market for any supplier will be shaped by the competitors product qualities and how they meet the market needs.
To make millions of specific forecasts which are most relevant a continuous analysis of the influences is necessary. This is only possible with input from the industry and the collaboration with others such as International Filtration News and INDA to establish the true costs of alternatives.
International Conflict: The media suppliers are very international. So any trade disruptions can have a big impact. Many European and U.S. media suppliers not only have plants in China dedicated to the Chinese market but also for international export. On April 4 China published a whitepaper saying that the West was persecuting Russia who is blameless not only in the Ukraine but even in the Stalinist era.
If China is sanctioned due to support of Russia there will be a major effect on the HVAC media market.
The destruction of Ukrainian residential and commercial buildings will result in a big HVAC market possibly supported by the equivalent of a Marshall Plan.
Life Quality Perceptions: The HVAC filter market has grown in step with the health advantages as perceived by the public. Due to COVID the public is now realizing the advantaged of cleaner indoor air and will be willing to spend the money to achieve it.
The U.S. is now prioritizing air filtration in buildings as a primary strategy to combat COVID and other viruses in the future. The new federal guidelines advise buildings to upgrade to at least a MERV 13 filter, Alondra Nelson, chief of the White House Office of Science and Technology Policy, said that the guidance was part of an initiative called the Clean Air in Buildings Challenge. Funds are being made available to support the program.
Ultimately it is the public’s perceived needs and the industry ability to cost effectively meet them which will determine the market. Understanding the needs and abilities has been enhanced by a series of True Cost articles in IFN. As shown below attendees at FiltXPO were provided with lists of speakers and exhibitors who could address the important questions.
The Value of HVAC Filters has risen
Background data can be found at bit.ly/iiow-hvac-filtration.
- What is the advantage of testing an unloaded filter when dust will change the electrostatic effect?
- How efficient should the pre-filter be?
- How important is media processability in the final filter cost?
- Can you upgrade from MERV 8 to MERV 13 without major system upgrades?
- Should initial filter testing be conducted in a miniature HVAC recirculating system?
- What are the negative costs (benefits) of cleaner indoor air and how do you rate them.
Mcilvaine has a life quality metric but are there other options?
New metrics for filter selection and ‘true cost’ determination
- What is the merit in considering a city as a giant HVAC system?
- What is the value of a well health seal ?
- If new outdoor measurement devices identify high levels of toxic metals or there is poor air quality due to wildfires other phenomena, how do you modify your HVAC designs?
- If viruses in droplets are temporarily captured in a mask or filter but then escape when the droplets evaporate is our measurement approach adequate?
Applications determine air filter market share & influence total cost of ownership
1. Where should combination gas phase-particulate media be applied vs separate treatment?
- Where do pleated filters have the LTCO vs panel or pocket filters?
Each of these key questions will continue to be addressed. Answers will be reflected in continuously updated forecasts.