NEWS RELEASE                                                                                        July 2019

Selling to the 500 Coal Plant Owners who make 99 percent of the Purchases

Suppliers of Combust, Flow, and Treat (CFT) products and services for coal fired power can now develop sales programs focused on each individual owner. Coal fired power represents one of the largest markets for CFT product suppliers. In the last 20 years an average of 50,000 MW per year of new coal fired power plants have been added to the world generation capacity. Over the next ten years 40,000 MW per year of new capacity will be added. This will be partially offset by retirement of 13,000 MW per year of existing capacity.

Annual new plant investment will exceed $160 billion per year. The installed base of plants has now reached 2 million MW and will increase by 270,000 MW over the next decade. The investment in the installed base exceeds $4 trillion. Potential for third party upgrades, repair, service, and remote operation will exceed $200 billion per year. This includes major environmental upgrades in India and other countries in Asia, Eastern Europe, and Africa.

McIlvaine has compiled enough information on each process at each plant to enable relatively precise forecasting as per the following example for valves.

Corporate Name: EVN Unit size: MW 660
Plant Name: Genco 3 Vinh Tan 2 Vĩnh Tân commune, Tuy Phong district, Bình Thuận province. Vietnam
Unit #   1 Specific product purchases 2019 $1000
Forecasts can be supplied for sixteen types of valves, four types of pumps, actuators, limestone, lime, precipitator internals, dust bags, gas instrumentation, liquid instrumentation, controls, treatment chemicals, ammonia, urea, catalyst, cartridges, dewatering filter belts, membrane modules, linings, nozzles, mist eliminators, fans, air compressors, oxidation compressors, motors, VFD, seals, packing, hose, couplings, compressed air filters, lubrication filters Ball valves $170,000
Butterfly Valves: $120,000
Globe Valves $190,000
Plug Valves: $100,000
Gate Valves: $150,000

Seventy percent of the purchasing decisions for existing plants are made by 27 companies with more than 10,000 MW of capacity. However, 150 owners are making the decisions for 70 percent of the new plants. Five hundred owners will purchase 99 perent of CFT products for new and existing plants.

Coal Fired Capacity for Individual Owners
 Above MW  Planned Cumulative #  Operating
Cumulative #
80,000   1
60,000   2
50,000   3
40,000   3
30,000   8
20,000 2 10
10,000 8 27
5000 25 63
3000 50 110
2000 70 164
1500 90 196
1000 150 255
700 200 307
500 250 379
300 300 491
200 350 570
100 400 710
˂ 100   900

Country Forecasts are based on aggregating forecasts for individual owners.

Coal Plants by Country (MW) Installed Base      
Country 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024
Albania 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Argentina 350 350 350 350 350 350 350
Australia 24,442 24,442 24,442 24,442 24,442 24,442 24,442
Austria 635 635 635 635 635 635 635
Bangladesh 525 1,200 2,500 5,500 8,000 10,000 12,000
Belarus 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Belgium 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Bosnia & Herzegovina 2,073 2,073 2,073 2,073 2,073 3,000 4,000
Botswana 600 600 732 732 732 1,200 1,200
Brazil 2,804 2,804 2,804 2,804 2,804 3,400 3,400
  • EON
             
  • EDP
             
  • Electrobas
             
               

Brazil Plant Details

Unit Sponsor Parent Capacity (MW) Year City State
MPX Itaqui power project Eneva E.ON, EBX Group 360 2013 Itaqui Maranhão
Porto do Pecém I Unit 1 Eneva, EDP Energias do Brasil Eneva, EDP 365 2012 São Gonçalo do Amarante Ceará
Porto do Pecém I Unit 2 Eneva, EDP Energias do Brasil Eneva, EDP 365 2013 São Gonçalo do Amarante Ceará
Porto do Pecém II Unit 1 Eneva E.ON, Eneva 365 2013 São Gonçalo do Amarante Ceará
Porto do Pecém-1Unit 1 EDP Energias do Brasil EDP 365 2012 São Goncalo do Amarante Ceará
Porto do Pecém-1 Unit 2 EDP Energias do Brasil EDP 365 2013 São Goncalo do Amarante Ceará
Porto do Pecém-2 Unit 1 Eneva E.ON, EBX Group 365 2013 São Goncalo do Amarante Ceará
Presidente Médici-A Unit 1 Companhia de Geração Térmica de Energia Elétrica Eletrobras 63 1974 Candiota Rio Grande do Sul
Presidente Médici-A Unit 2 Companhia de Geração Térmica de Energia Elétrica Eletrobras 63 1974 Candiota Rio Grande do Sul
Presidente Médici-B Unit 1 Companhia de Geração Térmica de Energia Elétrica Eletrobras 160 1986 Candiota Rio Grande do Sul
Presidente Médici-B Unit 2 Companhia de Geração Térmica de Energia Elétrica Eletrobras 160 1987 Candiota Rio Grande do Sul
Presidente Médici-C Unit 1 Companhia de Geração Térmica de Energia Elétrica Electrobras 350 2010 Candiota Rio Grande do Sul

High quality forecasts now allow a supplier to project purchases for each owner. A large percentage of coal plant CFT products are purchased based on decisions of a group and a consensus built up over time. Therefore the continuous pursuit rather than response to a sales lead is more productive The larger purchasers can be pursued differently than those in the middle or those at the bottom. Here are utilities in the middle with 6000 – 9000 MW range of existing and planned capacity.  J Power is the only company appearing on both lists.

Planned Coal Fired
Company MW
Power Finance Corporation 8,000
Egyptian Electricity Holding Company 7,920
KEPCO 7,698
China Resources 7,035
NLC India 6,700
TANGEDCO 6,640
J-POWER 6,356
Eskom 6,352
UPRVUNL 6,270
   
 
Operating Coal Fired
Company MW
E.ON 8,772
J-POWER 8,482
Inter RAO 8,372
Vedanta Resources 8,327
Xcel Energy 7,915
Henan Investment Group 7,840
Beijing Energy Group 7,772
Engie 7,387
Damodar Valley Corporation 7,240
AES 7,025

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The CFT purchases can all be related to existing and new MW. Details on each process for each owner also are important. McIlvaine has details on FGD, SCR, precipitators, fabric filters, and other components in databases which have been compiled and augmented since the 1970s.

The combustion segmentations are by boiler design e.g. fluid bed or pulverized coal. Also the efficiency division: subcritical, supercritical, and ultra-supercritical is important. China is upgrading more than 100,000 MW of sub critical and supercritical to ultrasupercritical.

Intake water, boiler feedwater, type of cooling, wet FGD, and wastewater treatment can be identified. A number of plants are improving their wastewater treatment and often opting for zero liquid discharge and maximum water reuse.

Solid waste is a challenge due to increasingly stringent standards. Switching from wet to dry flyash handling and dewatering ponded flyash are major opportunities. Byproduct sales potential is also a driver.

Various air pollution control approaches are used for reducing SO2, NOx, particulate, mercury, VOCs and even CO2 (sequestering). It is impossible to make precise determinations for each plant because of variations in the fuel and other site specific factors. Rules of thumb provide a relatively accurate way of forecasting as per the following sorbent example.

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The coal fired power industry is unique in that relatively few companies make nearly all the purchases. Details on their operations are available. This means that a CFT supplier can structure his sales program around these specific companies and pursue the most profitable markets. This program is explained at www.mcilvainecompany.com.

Details on coal plants by country and on the individual plants are tabulated in 42EI Utility Tracking System.

Bob McIlvaine can answer your questions at 847 784 0013, cell 847 226 2391, email This email address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it.