NEWS RELEASE                                                                                                    DECEMBER 2014

The New Approach to Market Forecasting For Flow Control and Treatment Products

Traditional forecasting of markets for air, gas, water and liquid flow control and treatment products has been the top down approach.  The total market is determined and then segmented by industry, product and location. There are two problems with this approach:

  • The numbers are not reliable
  • There is not the granularity needed to set quotas and promotional expenditures

The bottom-up approach is far better.  The problem is that it is necessary to determine the quantities in as many as 50,000 niches.  Prior to the digital age this was prohibitively expensive. Today it is a money saver. The granularity offers the potential to make a decision about selling an on/off ball valve to the pharmaceutical industry in Germany as follows.



What   is the valve growth projection for Germany?

Valve   growth over the next five years will be $140 million from present $1.9   billion.

The   biggest potential for the new valve is pharmaceutical.  How big is   this market?

Will   grow by $4 million to $61 million/yr by 2019.

The   product is a globe valve, so how big is this segment?

German   pharmaceutical globe market will grow by $1 million/yr to $15 million in   2019.

It   will primarily be used for on/off and not control, so how big is this   segment?

On/Off market   will grow to $13 million by 2019.

The   new valve is used mostly in processing and not water, so how big is this   segment?

Processing segment   is 60 percent for a 2019 market of $7.8 million.

What   will be the sales for new plants?

Only   30 percent or $2.3 million.

The   new product should capture 15 percent share.

Target   is $345.000/yr by 2019.

Should   capture 5 percent of the replacement market which is 70 percent.

Target   is 70 percent of 7.8 million x 5 percent=$273,000 for a total   annual sales of $618,000.


These detailed forecasts provide the unique opportunity to validate the accuracy of the forecasts for the total market.  Who better than the local salesman to evaluate the forecast for his products and its reliability.

McIlvaine has this level of granularity in:

N064 Air/Gas/Water/Fluid Treatment and Control: World Market

N029 Ultrapure Water: World Market

N028 Industrial Valves: World Market

241I  Nuclear Power Plant Valve  Forecast and Analysis

N026 Water and Wastewater Treatment Chemicals: World Market

N031 Air and Water Monitoring: World Market

N024 Cartridge Filters: World Market

N020 RO, UF, MF World Market

N019 Pumps World Market  

N006 Liquid Filtration and Media World Markets

N005 Sedimentation and Centrifugation World Markets